Astros vs Red Sox odds, picks and predictions for today — Astroworld

The Houston Astros saw their 11-game winning streak come to an end over the weekend, but they bounced back to win their weekend series against the Washington Nationals.

Houston will try to start a new streak when they open a series with the surprisingly bad Boston Red Sox. Boston heads into this matchup with a 13-21 record, trailing even the Baltimore Orioles in the AL East standings.

Despite this, the BoSox are the favorites in this American League matchup. Are the Stros an obvious play as underdogs tonight? Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Astros vs. Red Sox on Monday, May 16.

Astros vs Red Sox Odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each regulated bookmaker betting market.

The Red Sox opened this AL matchup as home favorites at roughly -120 and, despite their struggles, have seen the money early, moving the line to -130. The total hit the board at 8.5 and has since climbed to 9 with that number in most stores as of Monday afternoon.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movement down to first pitch, and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Astros vs Red Sox Tips & Predictions

Selections made on 5/16/2022 at 2:30 pm ET.
Click on each selection to access the full analysis.

Game Info Astros vs Red Sox

• Location: Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts
• Date: Monday, May 16, 2022
• first pitch: 7:10 p.m. Eastern Time
• TELEVISION: MLB Network

Astros vs Red Sox Betting Preview

starting pitchers

Jake Odorizzi (3-2, 3.38 ERA): After a somewhat rocky start to the season, Odorizzi has looked almost unbeatable in his last three starts. The right-hander has allowed just one run on six hits in his last 17 2-3 innings of work.

Garrett Whitlock (1-1, 2.19 ERA): Whitlock started the year as the Red Sox’s long reliever, but injuries and a strong start pushed him into the rotation, where he’s been a little out of control at times, but he’s striking out the best hitters right now.

Weather

Be sure to monitor game weather conditions with our MLB weather information.

key injuries

Stars: José Peña SS (Questionable).
Red Sox: There are no key injuries to report.
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Astros are 8-1 in their last nine games when facing a right-handed starter, while the Red Sox are 0-5 in their last five when listed as favorites. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Red Sox

Astros vs Red Sox Predictions and Predictions

Our side and total predictions are based on our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite selection in all markets.

money line analysis

It’s been a disappointing start to the season, to say the least, for the Boston Red Sox. I mean, any time you show up behind the Baltimore Orioles in the standings after the second week of April, it’s concerning. And after losing nine of their last 13 games, that’s exactly where the BoSox are headed in this matchup with the Astros.

The Sox’s biggest problem this season has been their performance at the plate. What was expected to be a potent lineup, he ranks 24th in OPS and 23rd in runs scored heading into this series. And things won’t be much easier tonight.

The Astros hand Jake Odorizzi the ball for Game 1 and, as noted, he’s in a groove. The right-hander has an expected ERA of 3.79 and has allowed only one run in his last three starts, allowing only six hits in that span. Odorizzi doesn’t strike out many hitters at this point in his career, but he’s creating a lot of soft contact thanks to his fastball placement and mix of his pitches.

Now, you could say it was against the Rangers, Mariners and Tigers, but unfortunately for BoSox fans, their lineup is comparable right now and he ranks 22nd in OPS when facing right-handed pitching.

That said, they’re hoping Garrett Whitlock can keep them in this game. He’s been one of Boston’s only bright spots since he joined the rotation and he’s looking to keep it that way.

Whitlock, 25, has been mostly outstanding this season, shooting with a 2.37 xERA and holding opponents to a .190 xBA. He, too, is hitting opposing hitters like he’s going out of style. He has an electric fastball with a devastating slider and has struck out 23 batters in 15 innings as a starter.

However, the Astros can be a patient team, ranking 10th in strikeouts per game and fourth in walks per game. They also rank fifth in OPS when it comes to facing righties this season.

Whitlock can also rack up his pitch count quickly and has only pitched more than four innings once as a starter. That’s multiple innings for a bullpen that ranks 24th in ERA, compared to a Houston bullpen that ranks second in the same category.

Ultimately, it’s the Astros, not Boston, who should be favored in this game.

Prediction: Astros money line (+110 at bet365)

Over/Under Analysis

When it comes to the total, the initial steam is at Over, but it looks like the number has moved high enough to consider the other side.

We’ve talked at length about the Red Sox struggling to score this season and their 3.71 runs per game ranking 23rd in the MLB. Despite scoring a few runs in their last series against Texas, they are still averaging just 3.92 runs per game over the last 13 games. One reason for this is that the BoSox struggles to cash in with running backs, ranking 25th in OPS with running backs in scoring position.

And while Houston has been on a roll, ranking 13th in the middle of the pack when it comes to batting average when facing right-handed pitching, there’s no denying how effective Whitlock has been as a starter.

We’re on a slight incline to the Bass here.

Prediction: Under 9 (+100 at bet365)

best bet

I feel strongly that the Astros should be favored in this matchup. Yes, Whitlock has been very solid, but it will be interesting to see how he responds to a patient, veteran lineup like Houston’s. One who is 12-1 in his last 13 games and has 5.31 runs per game in that span. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are in a tailspin after losing nine of 13.

Houston has arguably the best starter, isn’t slumping at the plate and has the best bullpen. Stros on an alternate runline from -1.5 to +174 seem to be of tremendous value.

Choose: Astros alternate career line -1.5 (+174 in FanDuel)