Even with a relatively warm winter, the energy trade balance deficit would be multiplied by seven and subsidies would increase between 0.3 and 0.5 percentage points compared to 2021, according to the Equilibra consultancy.
A commercial red of 6,300 million dollars due to higher international prices and its correlate in the fiscal effort to cushion the impact on tariffs compromise two of the three goals agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), ratified last week.
In a report, Equilibra outlined different climate scenarios for this winter and estimated their impact on public accounts. At large numbers, a degree or so in the average temperature of the cold months means spending a billion dollars or so on energy purchases. For every degree below the average temperature, subsidies would increase by 0.2 points of GDP.
Winter concentrates the greatest demand for gas and the bulk of fuel imports. Equilibra defined as probable scenarios a winter with temperatures within the historical average and a more benign one, with the temperature 1 degree above the average, as occurred in 2021.
According to Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina, director of the firm, another probable scenario is that this winter will be warmer than last year due to the effect of “La Niña”, although the climatic phenomenon supposes, within the average, the possibility of very cold days and others more temperate.
If the average temperature is one degree above the average, the country will have to import energy for 14,000 million dollars and the trade deficit will climb from 897 million dollars in 2021 to 6,300 million dollars. If the temperature is similar to the historical average, the red will rise to 7.3 billion dollars. And if the cold is greater (a scenario ruled out today, due to global warming), the deficit would rise to 8,500 million dollars. The colder, moreover, the probability of supply cuts is greater.
“If winter temperatures are 1 degree above average (similar to what happened in 2021), the supply of industrial gas will not suffer cuts since the level of consumption for heating will be reduced. In this scenario, the imported volumes of LNG would be lower than those of 2021 as demand would fall 0.1%, thanks to the substitution of gas oil for gas in thermoelectric plants,” he said.
With these prices, the IMF’s request to cut energy subsidies by 0.6 points of GDP – the only claim for fiscal adjustment that it put in writing – becomes unfeasible.