Are all deaths counted as the death toll from COVID-19 rises in Saskatchewan? | The Canadian News

Saskatchewan’s death toll from COVID-19 continues to rise, passing 900 on Wednesday.

One researcher says that figure may not count everyone who died from the disease because it has not in the past.

“The excess mortality data that we had for Saskatchewan,” Tara Moriarty said, “and all the provinces outside of Quebec, suggested that what we were missing was a lot of the deaths in the community.”

Moriarty is an infectious disease researcher at the University of Toronto and co-author of a Royal Society of Canada report that found “evidence that at least two-thirds of deaths caused by COVID-19 in communities outside of the long-term care sector term may have been missed. “

“It appears that most of the other Canadian provinces (besides Quebec) probably missed 50 percent of their COVID deaths or more,” he said, speaking from near French River in Ontario.

“Saskatchewan, BC are especially high,” he added.

To make that determination, Moriarty and his co-authors examined death statistics from across Canada, paying particular attention to cremation records in Ontario, which include where the deceased died.

Moriarty said the data shows that many more people die in the community, as opposed to what happens in hospitals and long-term care homes, than governments initially reported.

And by comparing the number of excess deaths, essentially the measure of premature deaths, a number that would increase in a pandemic, with the death figures for COVID-19, Moriarty and his colleagues were able to conclude that the official count missed some deaths.

Quebec plays a huge role in the calculations because the province tests dead people for COVID-19, Moriarty explained, thus helping to provide an accurate picture of the disease in the population.

She told Global News that it is difficult to compare data after the end of last year because death statistics are often delayed, even up to two years after someone dies.

However, she said she is confident that the trend continues.

Moriarty said Canada lags behind most other countries in the Organization for Economic Coordination and Development (OECD), a group of countries mostly rich in reporting death statistics.

The report, released last June, called on Canadian governments to test anyone who dies in any setting for COVID and to require weekly preliminary reports of deaths from all causes.

A Statistics Canada report on interim death counts for October, the most recent available, states that there were an excess of 19,501 deaths between March 2020 and July 2021, while approximately 25,000 people died from COVID-19 during that same period.

It also states that Saskatchewan, Ontario, Alberta, and BC all experienced periods of excess mortality that generally coincided with higher COVID-19 deaths during the same period.

The report states that the pandemic can contribute to death statistics in indirect ways that increase or decrease the number of deaths through various factors, such as delayed medical procedures, increased substance use, or decreases attributable to other causes.

In a statement, the Saskatchewan Health Ministry said it considers a death a “‘COVID-19 death’ when the death is the result of a clinically compatible disease in a COVID-19 case, unless there is an alternative cause. clear and immediate death that cannot be related to COVID-19 (eg trauma). The reported cases would have tested positive for COVID-19 “.

“Not all COVID-19 deaths will be reported to the public health for a variety of reasons, for example, the death was due to symptoms not associated with COVID-19 symptoms.”

Global News asked if the province has changed the way it screens dead people for COVID-19.

The statement said the province has different standards and slower processes for recording deaths and their causes.

“Until this process occurs, it is difficult to determine the exact number of deaths caused or related to COVID-19.”

Part of the problem, said epidemiologist and physician Cory Neudorf, is determining whether someone died of COVID or died of COVID, which can take time.

He echoed Moriarty on the data and responses to the pandemic.

Another way to measure the spread of COVID in the population is the testing rate and numbers, which have dropped 24 percent in the past 30 days, according to the Saskatchewan government.

“Throughout the pandemic, we know that there are more positives than we detect with the tests because people have simply chosen not to go for the tests or have very mild or asymptomatic symptoms at that time,” he said.

The government provided compelling evidence of that fact when it reported in October that half of people receiving treatment for COVID-19 only get tested for the first time when they enter the hospital, or shortly thereafter.

Fewer tests, pandemic fatigue, people not reporting when they test positive on a rapid test, and people avoiding tests all drive that trend, Neudorf said.

“We still have to encourage people to get tested, even though people are getting tired of it,” he said.

Not knowing the true extent of the pandemic, whether through death counts or testing, means that lawmakers must make decisions without important information, Neudorf said.

So, he said the province should wait to remove the current public health orders, which could expire at the end of November.

“We need to keep the measures in place for a while after the numbers have come down to ensure it’s a real decline,” he said, saying the province should also take into account lagging factors like hospital admissions and ICUs.

Moriarty said that knowing how many people died from the disease and testing more people, both living and dead, gives healthcare workers and lawmakers a better idea of ​​how much the virus has spread and therefore , better information to keep people safe.

But not knowing limits your ability to understand the real impact of the pandemic.

“In terms of planning and everything else, the death information that we have (after 2020) is not particularly useful,” he said.

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