Its European record and heritage will be the subject of debate for a long time, but the succession of Angela Merkel, who led Germany for sixteen years, is garnering all the attention in Brussels and in European capitals. Everyone knows that the German legislative elections of September 26 will be decisive for the continuation of the community adventure. When the first economy of the Union changes its pattern, which is moreover at the end of one of the worst crises that the continent has known, the subject is crucial.
France is losing, in any case, a partner with which it had been able to forge close ties and breathe new life into the Franco-German couple, which in particular enabled the implementation of the European recovery plan of 750 billion euros financed. by a common debt of the Twenty-Seven. The countries of Central and Eastern Europe will miss a Chancellor who, because she began her life in the GDR, was the link between the west and the east of the continent, as well as between the north and the south. As for the so-called “four frugal” countries (Austria, the Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark), champions of budgetary rigor, orphans of their British ally since Brexit, they will still need Berlin’s supervision.
Conversely, in Madrid, Lisbon or Rome, people are worried about seeing the return of a “selfish” Germany and champion of austerity, and we are betting a lot on a “special relationship” with Paris.
On the most strategic subjects, nothing will happen until the next government is in place
“The first question for Europe today is the length of the German electoral sequence. In 2017, it took five months for a coalition to be formed [entre le SPD et la CDU-CSU]. During all this time, for the Europeans, it is a partner who does not respond ”, analysis Sébastien Maillard, director of the Jacques Delors Institute. Clearly, on the most strategic subjects – the climate, defense, budgetary rules, the transatlantic relationship, migration, the rule of law … – nothing will happen as long as the next government – which could be a three-party coalition – will not be in place. If it takes several months, European action risks being put on hold.
More optimistic, Geneviève Pons, director in Brussels of the Europe Jacques Delors think tank, believes that, even if the CDU (Christian Democratic Union, center-right) is beaten, her rivals, “So marked by the Merkel years, her attitude and her European commitment”, will want to quickly demonstrate their own will to move forward. “It is our duty to ensure that Europe progresses”, insisted, a few days ago, in the daily Die welt, Olaf Scholz, the favorite of the poll, leader of the SPD (Social Democratic Party) and finance minister of Mme Merkel.
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