‘And then, there’s Brian Jean’: Why Jason Kenney’s political life is set to get even more dramatic

EDMONTON—In Alberta, Brian Jean’s name has become synonymous with a threat to the current political order of things.

His return to politics is often one of the first things political observers bring up during discussions about Premier Jason Kenney, the province’s governing United Conservative Party and the future of right-wing politics here.

They bring it up as a kind of premonition: “And then, there’s Brian Jean,” they’ll say in, depending on whom you’re talking to, a slightly annoyed or intrigued way.

Jean — a Fort McMurray businessman, former Wildrose Party leader and former federal Conservative MP — hopes to ride a comeback wave that’s poised to crash into the Alberta legislature this week.

On Tuesday, votes will be tallied in the Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche by election. The result could put Jean, if he wins, back in the Alberta legislature as a UCP MLA — and catapult him further toward his real goal: taking over from Kenney as party leader.

It would be the latest chapter in a long-running political rivalry between Jean and Kenney over the fate of conservative Alberta politics.

Jean and Kenney are essentially the forefathers of the province’s United Conservative Party, forged in 2017 from the embers of rivalry between the Progressive Conservative and Wildrose parties. Kenney, the former PC leader, would go on to win a controversial leadership race that year, taking 61 per cent of the votes, while Jean, the former Wildrose leader, pulled in just over 31 per cent.

In the 2017 UCP leadership vote Kenney’s team orchestrated what became known as a “kamikaze campaign” in which it used another leadership contestant — Jeff Callaway — as a puppet candidate in order to attack Jean on issues that Kenney didn’t want to hit him on . Callaway would bow out before the vote that year and back Kenney.

The fallout resulted in hundreds of thousands of dollars in fines being levied against people who donated to the Callaway campaign using money that wasn’t theirs, including fines against Callaway himself. An RCMP investigation was launched into allegations of identity fraud carried out by the Kenney team in the leadership race.

Kenney has maintained that there was no wrongdoing on his part during the leadership race.

Jean would eventually vacate his seat in the legislature and leave politics for years to focus on family — until now.

He told the Star last year that the whole ordeal “disgusts me.”

“Someday there will be a reckoning,” he said. “And I believe that day will come soon.”

Depending on whom you ask, that reckoning may indeed be looming.

Kenney faces a leadership review on April 9 in Red Deer, where thousands of party members are expected to vote on whether they still approve of him or not. All eyes will be on the degree of support he gets; anything less than 50-plus-one per cent and a leadership race will be automatically sparked. Even if he gets less than 75 per cent, there will be some who think he should step aside.

His popularity has been tanking, according to recent cocks, and Jean says the NDP will win in the province’s general election next year unless something is done. Some in Kenney’s own caucus, meanwhile, want him gone, as they’ve been divided over public health measures during the pandemic. Some say he put in too many while others say he didn’t act swiftly enough as COVID-19 spread.

Whether the next chapter for Jean is one of vengeance against an old foe — ushering in a new era of conservative politics in Alberta — or one of continued political suffering, remains to be seen.

But it’s safe to say the next month in Alberta will likely bring drama. If Kenney comes out looking weak after April 9 but decides not to resign, he’ll be seen as a lame duck leader by critics. If he comes out looking strong, the enemies he has in his party with him — including Jean — will have to contemplate their next steps.

The two men are seen by many to represent different versions of conservatism in the province. Kenney, 53, is often viewed as having more white-collar appeal with corporate types living in the crucial electoral ridings around Calgary, while Jean, 59, upholds the everyday Albertan image; a hard worker, not afraid to get dirty and seemingly aware that he doesn’t sport the polished sheen that a lifelong political operator such as Kenney does.

Jean was born in British Columbia and moved to Fort McMurray as a child. Kenney was born in Ontario and moved around before settling in Calgary and becoming a Reform Party MP at the age of 29.

Jean could be said to be further to the right than Kenney on some issues. For instance, he doesn’t believe the prospect of Alberta separating from Canada should be left off the table. Kenney, while criticized for seemingly flirting with separatists at times, has said he believes Alberta can get what it wants from Ottawa while remaining part of the country. Both leaders have demanded a “fair deal” from the federal government and railed against equalization and perceived attacks on the province’s energy industry.

Others have simply stuffed the two into an urban-versus-rural dichotomy. But as with anything, there’s nuance. Jean, in his own right, is a successful businessman and longtime politician. He’s no stranger to verbal sparring in the public arena of politics and can turn on that shine when a strong line is needed for some good PR.

Kenney, for his part, understands the appeal of that down-home image in Alberta. He has spent much of his time campaigning during the 2019 provincial election in a blue pickup truck (a cornerstone of Albertan identity politics), speaking about “severely normal Albertans” and promising to bring back good paying blue-collar jobs. He’ll roll up his sleeves for photo-ops and his government members will often pay lip service to “hockey moms and hockey dads” just looking to provide a good life to their kids.

The premier is certainly known for his impressive recall of facts during news conferences and ability to stay on top of nearly all the complicated policy initiatives underway in his government. He’s a skilled orator who can come off as being in tune with how to address economic issues in the province.

Jean will be the first to say that it’s different from his own brand.

“I’m not the best speaker — that’s Jason Kenney,” Jean told the Star late last year. “He’s the smoothest talker I’ve ever heard, and I’ve heard a lot of them.”

Jean comes from the Wildrose Party side of conservatism in Alberta, believed to be more grassroots in nature. Observers would say that Wildrosers often come from the rural ridings in this province and encompass small business owners, farmers and blue-collar types from small towns. His political pitch from him is also one of collaboration, going so far as to say recently to the Globe and Mail that he’d include Opposition NDP Leader Rachel Notley on a COVID-19 cabinet committee if he were in charge.

Kenney is viewed by many as a career politician due to his prolific years as a federal cabinet minister in Stephen Harper’s government; starchy, focused on growing the economy and slick in how he gets his business done. His criticism of him will point out that he — literally — signed a “grassroots guarantee” as a pledge to listen to the grassroots members of his party when campaigning to be the leader. That promise is largely seen as broken by conservatives who’ve come to dislike the premier’s leadership style, which those same critics say is one of top-down control that ignores everyday Albertans.

Those involved in politics here see Kenney’s political pitch as being one of competent leadership in the face of hard times for Alberta. Who better than him to take on Ottawa’s carbon tax, the energy industry’s enemies, perceived or otherwise, and the NDP — who he beat handily in 2019 under a united party formed due to his persistence of him in unification, some say.

In the end, any leader will face a caucus that’s been fighting itself for the better part of two years.