The airport groups listed on the Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV) would have had their best first quarter since the Covid-19 pandemic began, given an easy basis for comparison and recovery in travel demand, and will report double-digit growth, both in income and operating flow (EBITDA) and profits, analysts anticipate.
They estimate that the average growth of the sector is 68.7% compared to the same period in 2021, with Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (Asur) leading the increases, said Ana Sepúlveda, Client Portfolio Manager at Fintual México.
The also expert in international markets and investments forecast a 75% increase in the average EBITDA of the sector, with the largest increase in the margin by Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP), given a lower comparison base and higher non-aeronautical revenues. .
Sepúlveda foresees that the average growth in earnings per share would be 71%, with Asur being the one that will have the highest growth.
Brian Rodríguez, an analyst at Monex Casa de Bolsa, considered that Asur and GAP will report revenues greater than 80% in the first quarter of the year compared to the same period in 2021. OMA will present an operating rhythm below the year prior to the pandemic.
Asur will report this April 25 and the next day OMA. GAP on Thursday 28.
For Marco Antonio Montañez, deputy director of Fundamental Analysis at Vector Casa de Bolsa, in the first three months of this year there is still a favorable basis for comparison because “it was not until the second quarter of 2021 when the demand for travel in Mexico began its recovery in a clearer way, mainly due to the vaccination process of the population that increased, in turn, the confidence of the traveler and also to the process of economic recovery due to the increase in the mobility of the population”.
OMA traffic lagging
Regarding passenger traffic, the specialists agreed that Asur and GAP exceeded the levels of 2019, a year before the pandemic. OMA still with figures below.
Ana Sepúlveda estimated that OMA will report less than 5.1 million passengers transported, a figure below 2019, while Asur and GAP will register 9.02 million and 6.91 million passengers, respectively, which represents growth of 3.4 and 11%, in that order, compared to the year before the health crisis.
“Travel demand did not have a relevant negative impact due to the wave of the Omicron variant of Covid-19 at the end of last year and the beginning of 2022. The stations that will register traffic, in the first quarter of 2022, higher than pre-pandemic levels They will be Asur and GAP. OMA will continue to be below due to the high composition of business travelers in its passenger traffic, a segment that will take longer to recover,” said Marco Montañez.
Brian Rodríguez highlighted that January and February were negative for passenger traffic at Mexican airports, March compensated, but the quarter was negative compared to the comparable base of 2019. For the rest of the year, a recovery is anticipated, in general, with a 2.1 percent growth.
Regarding the performance on the Stock Exchange, of the three airport groups, OMA accumulates the highest annual increase, with a return of 16.6% in its share price, followed by GAP with 11% and Asur moves in negative territory (- 1.6%).
The foregoing despite the fact that Asur is the one that recovers best for having Cancun as the main airport of one of the main tourist destinations in Mexico. On the contrary, OMA, whose main terminal is Monterrey, registers a slow rate of recovery as it is a business destination.
The specialists spoke of the prevailing risks for the sector: the geopolitical conflict, higher fuel costs for airlines, given the notable increase in oil prices and the slowdown in the economy.
Marco Montañez considered that the war in Europe continues to worry because if oil prices continue to rise, or remain at high levels for a long time, airlines could eventually reduce capacity and this would be harmful to airports.
“In addition, there will be some negative effect on travel demand from Europe due to lower economic activity and decrease in disposable personal income due to the effects of the war in Ukraine. The traffic coming from Russia will have a significant decrease, although it does not represent a relevant percentage for the airports in Mexico”, he said.
The catalysts for the sector after the effects of the pandemic, added Montañez, are the process of vaccinating the population, as well as the reopening of the economy when the mobility of the population recovers.
Ana Sepúlveda mentioned that the main factor will continue to be tourism and higher spending by international passengers.
Brian Rodríguez said that another important aspect is the economic recovery, although it is not a very significant growth, the fact that there is an economic recovery with respect to comparable bases such as that of 2020 is still a favorable aspect, perhaps it could translate into a increased demand for flights.
“There is a greater supply of seats available. Airlines continue to increase fleets, which translates into new routes, which benefit airport groups”, he concluded.