Analysis | ‘We found a way.’ Leafs return and upset Lightning in Game 4. Round two is one win away

TAMPA, Fla.—Somehow, the Maple Leafs have done it again. They won another game that they probably deserved to lose on Monday night.

As a result, the Leafs can do something else that feels unlikely to today’s fan base: win a series.

The Leafs are one win away from winning a playoff series for the first time since 2004, following a 5-4 overtime victory Monday night over the Tampa Bay Lightning.

“The job is nowhere near done,” Leafs star Auston Matthews said. “We can enjoy this one, refocus, but obviously the fourth is the hardest to win.”

They should be feeling confident heading into Thursday’s Game 5 at Scotiabank Arena after completing an astonishing comeback with overtime hero Alex Kerfoot deflecting a shot from Mark Giordano on a power play created by aggressive play from William Nylander.

“It’s what you dream about, scoring goals in overtime in the playoffs,” Kerfoot said. “You just want to help the team in any way you can. There was a lot of belief in our room. Even after the first two periods, we started to put some pressure on them. Our greats came in, they took us to overtime, and then we got one on the power play.”

Ah yes, as Kerfoot said, the big ones have arrived.

The Leafs were essentially written down for dead in the game, trailing 4-1 in the third period and looking beaten. But Matthews scored twice and Morgan Rielly tied the game in a seven-minute span that took Tampa’s momentum away.

“I thought we started to pick up our game in the second period,” Matthews said. “In the locker room and everything, we stay focused. Just remove each turn, go out and win a turn and fight. And we found a way to do it.”

Regardless of what was said in the locker room, whatever that sentiment was, the team will need to duplicate it.

“In our living room, everyone was positive,” forward Ryan O’Reilly said. “The biggest thing was getting this (penalty) kill and then going after them. If we get one, ask them for some stubs and let’s give it a go. And that is exactly what happened. That impressed me.”

Coming back from a 4-1 third-quarter deficit to win a playoff game in overtime might do something for the psyche of fans who still remember the Leafs losing that way a decade ago to the Boston Bruins.

The team has a lot of playoff ghosts to exorcise, so maybe that was the first to go down. But winning an elimination game has been the biggest. They had multiple chances to win the last five playoff series and lost them all, the nadir being Game 7 against Montreal in 2021 after leading the series three games to one.

“I’m very hopeful that we see it as a sign, a positive sign of our team spirit — what we’re capable of, what we can overcome, and just that it feels different,” coach Sheldon Keefe said.

“The fourth is obviously the hardest,” Matthews said. “We know who we’re up against and what they’ve accomplished, especially in recent years.”

The Lightning have lost three straight in the playoffs for the first time since being swept by Columbus in 2019.

“We see a very important game coming up,” Keefe said. “Let’s keep pushing. We found a way to win tonight. They are who they are because they rarely lose two in a row. Obviously, they don’t lose three in a row very often. Winning four in a row is going to be even more difficult.”

core knowledge

While there were plenty of reasons to scratch your head about how the Leafs played through two quarters, there’s no denying that Matthews tied the team behind in the third. He only had one goal in the first three games, but he has been their best striker. He put an exclamation point on that with two goals in the third period: one an equally forceful wrist shot, the other a touch on the power play.

Matthews, Nylander and Mitch Marner have recorded points in all four games. In Marner’s case, he had two assists for his fourth straight multi-point game. His 10 points are his personal best and they lead the NHL.

Rielly, meanwhile, was a force all night. He won Game 3 in overtime and forced the extra period Monday with a spot shot. He had his problems all season, but he seems to have improved his game.

“Morgan, of all our players, has been here the longest and has a great appreciation for how hard it is to win at this time of year, and he wants to win more than anyone,” Keefe said before the game. “You just see the urgency and the level at which he plays. He has found ways to contribute offensively, which is a big part of who he is and what he does for us.”

Luke Schenn contributed 10 hits, tying his career playoff high.

head scratcher

The Leafs had talked about playing urgently and putting pressure on Lightning, playing a better connected version of the game. But it was Lightning who did all those things and the Leafs withered under pressure, their worst enemies.

Nylander was the first goat, taking an unnecessary penalty against Steven Stamkos off play at the Tampa end. That led to a power play goal by Alex Killorn and a 1-0 Tampa lead.

The Leafs were guilty of playing too casually with the puck, with passes easily intercepted and time in the offensive zone nearly impossible to sustain. And in their own area, they tended to back off. For example, Kerfoot had full control of the puck and plenty of ways to get it over the blue line, but he pulled back, it was stolen and ended up on Mikhail Sergachev’s stick for a 2-0 lead.

Samsonov was the best Leaf, facing 12 shots and stopping Brandon Hagel on a penalty kick. The Leafs were on the power play at the time and Hagel was tackled by Rielly in the neutral zone, another sign of how easily the Lightning were getting their way in the first period.

Keefe shuffles the deck

It was clear that Keefe needed to make changes, and after playing his top lane for a couple of turns, he did. He had hinted at it at the morning skate.

“We had three lines that were really struggling the other night,” Keefe said. “That was something I had to manage and try to find ways to get past it. In the third quarter, we separated Marner and Matthews thinking maybe we could try to help the other lines a little bit. Those are all different things that we have to look at.”

Then rookie Matthew Knies skated with John Tavares and Marner, and made the play of the period: a goal-line save to deny what appeared to be a surefire Tampa goal.

He seemed to give the Leafs a bit of life, with a goal from Noel Acciari deflecting a shot from Justin Holl. But the same problems resurfaced, with the Leafs simply giving up too many scoring chances without creating enough.

A Victor Hedman shot from the boards deflected off Stamkos for a 3-1 Tampa lead. And a shot from the same spot by Killorn made it 4-1 with 1:11 left in time. It was unstoppable: the fourth late-period goal conceded by Samsonov in the series.

check to check

Leafs forward Sam Lafferty led the high cross check to Lightning forward Ross Colton in the second period of Game 3, resulting in a roughing penalty and a $3,108.11 (US) fine. ), the maximum according to the collective agreement.

“I took it higher than I was trying to,” Lafferty said. “It’s one of those things. Unfortunately, it is not a good time to take a penalty. I have to clean that up.

The money goes to the players’ emergency assistance fund.

history lesson

Teams that take a 3-1 lead in a best-of-seven series are 299-31, including a 3-1 mark in last year’s playoffs. When the Leafs led 3-1 in a best-of-seven, they were 11-2 — 7-1 when starting at home.

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