Analysis | The Leafs and Lightning are going to Game 7 after OT thriller in Tampa


TAMPA, FLA.—In almost predictable fashion, it’s back to Toronto for Game 7.

The Tampa Bay Lightning dug deep into their reservoir of playoff experience, pulling off a 4-3 overtime win over the Maple Leafs in Game 6 of their first-round series Thursday night in a back-and-forth nail-biter of a game.

When the Leafs rallied for three goals — one from Auston Matthews, two by John Tavares — in the second period, it looked as if Toronto would win its first playoff series since 2004 and eliminate an opponent for the first time in eight tries since 2018.

But after an unfortunate series of events that left the Leafs seeing — high-sticking calls to David Kämpf and Alex Kerfoot 16 seconds apart in the third period — Nikita Kucherov tied the game 3-3 in the ensuing five-on-three. The Leafs complained bitterly to the referees that Kämpf’s stick had not touched Cal Foote’s face, and the replays showed they were correct.

It doesn’t matter.

Brayden Point scored 18:04 into overtime to force Game 7.

For the Leafs, it’s that feeling of déjà vu all over again. Eight times they’ve had a team on the ropes since 2018, eight times they have failed to put that team away. Instead, the Leafs have done themselves in.

It was a Game 7 in Boston in 2018, Games 6 and 7 against Boston in 2019, Game 5 in a shorter best-of-five series in 2020 against Columbus, and Games 5, 6 and 7 to Montreal in 2021. Now they’ go lost Game 6 to Tampa with Game 7 Saturday all they have to redeem themselves.

“Obviously we haven’t done that (eliminated an opponent) in the past and that’s come back to really hurt us,” defenseman Morgan Rielly said before the game. “So here tonight…an opportunity to win and move on is big. And I think we all realize that we learn in the past what happens when you’re not able to do that. We’re aware of all the challenges that we face.”

For the Lightning, it means keeping an impressive run alive. They hadn’t lost a playoff series since an embarrassing sweep in the first round in 2019 to the Columbus Blue Jackets. That loss, though, hardened them and led to Stanley Cup victories over Dallas in 2020 and Montreal in 2021. They’re a remarkable 17-0 after a playoff loss.

Joseph Ventresca and hundreds more Maple Leafs fans took the lows with the highs at Maple Leaf Square during Thursday night's Game 6.

costly mistake

The Leafs appeared to want to play a conservative game in the first period and give the Amalie Arena crowd little to get excited about. It worked for the most part. Shots and scoring chances were hard to come by.

The referees were oddly quiet, a number of plays that might have been called for infractions in the first five games were let go. The crowd hated that idea, and let the refs know. Finally, both teams took a penalty at the same time.

But the Leafs’ conservative approach to four-on-four play ended up hurting them, as they circled in their own end looking for the perfect path out. Ultimately, Kerfoot made one pass too many—a no-look back-pass to no one at the Leafs blue line. Ondrej Palat grabbed the loose puck and got the game’s first goal. The Leafs basically made one mistake in the first period, and it cost them.

leaf’s rally

Things looked particularly glum for the Leafs when Anthony Cirelli scored short-handed off a Jason Spezza giveaway. Cirelli’s spin-o-rama move around Mark Giordano was quite spectacular. But it also woke the Leafs up.

Matthews deflected a Giordano shot to get the Leafs on the board. Then the Leafs struck twice in the final minute of the second: Tavares tapped a puck out of the air after an Ondrej Kaše shot with 34 seconds to go, then the captain finished off a two-on-one with William Nylander with eight seconds to go. It was safe to say the Lightning were thunderstruck: For the second game in a row, a 2-0 Tampa lead became a 3-2 Toronto advantage.

series-theme

If there has been a theme through the series, it has been the penalties. Neither side adjusted to a strict standard imposed by the league’s officials, and even some sloppy infractions — like too many men and delay of game — made it easy on the men in stripes to blow the whistle.

“It’s been a very competitive series,” coach Sheldon Keefe said. “It’s hard competing for pucks. Sometimes on both sides. One player gets an advantage on another and you’re competing so hard that you don’t want to give up that edge. And it leads to trying to do whatever you can to stay in the fight, competing for pucks and reaching. And your stick at times gets away from you. So I think both sides have seen a little bit of that.”

Through the first five games, the Leafs (122 minutes) were by far the most penalized team in the playoffs, with Tampa (103) second.

“It’s a surprise,” said Lightning coach Jon Cooper. “I think everyone is just…waiting for that arm to go up. At times there can be an inconsistency that, you know, like Victor Hedman slides and takes (Mitch) Marner out and gets a penalty for it and Morgan Rielly slides, takes Cirelli out, and doesn’t get one.”

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