At the opening of the Madrid summit, member countries are not in unison on several fundamental issues. Their main dilemma: is it enough to help Ukraine not to lose the war or should we have a plan to help the Ukrainians win it?
Within NATO, differences exist and their consequences are real, believes Frédéric Mérand, professor of political science at the University of Montreal.
” The danger is that the nuances of position between the countries will be exploited by Moscow and end up becoming a factor of paralysis for NATO. »
Among the decisions that must be taken at the top:
- What kind of additional armament will be brought to the front?
- How many troops will we want to send to the Baltic countries, on the border with Ukraine, as a deterrent force against Russia?
- How to persuade Turkey not to block the accession of two new members, Sweden and Finland, to NATO?
- How to prepare the reconstruction of Ukraine?
It is vital that NATO build consensus on these issues, according to Stefanie von Hlatky, professor of political studies at Queen’s University.
” Showing that NATO is united sends a much more compelling political and diplomatic message to Russia, beyond the military capabilities of its 30 member states. »
The future of the operation
Some leaders, like French President Emmanuel Macron, believe in giving Vladimir Putin a way out so that he does not lose face. This option would probably mean an agreement with Ukraine to cede part of its territory in the east of the country.
An idea to which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky opposes an end of inadmissibility, with the support of Canada and the United States.
For Canada, a victory for Ukraine will mean a total withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukrainian territory
says Professor Frédéric Mérand. While for France, Italy and Germany, Ukraine will probably have to accept having lost part of its sovereignty in order, one day, to sign a treaty with Russia.
The common position that emerges on this issue will partly dictate NATO’s next steps in its support for Ukraine.
More troops in the Baltic countries?
Canada could be called upon to increase its military presence or its training missions in Latvia. NATO wants to increase its military presence in the Baltic countries to consolidate its defensive position and have a deterrent effect on Russia.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is pushing for member countries to commit to increased contributions in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. And he announces that he wants to triple the size of his rapid intervention force, to reach 300,000 soldiers.
Of course, Canada could always do more
, says Stefanie von Hlatky. Especially since the country’s military spending has still not reached the target of 2% of its GDP, unlike other allies like Germany. It puts more pressure on Canada
believes Ms. von Hlatky.
The accession of Sweden and Finland
Justin Trudeau already gives his unequivocal support for Sweden and Finland joining, a hot topic that will be discussed at the Madrid summit.
If Sweden and Finland were accepted into NATO, the Atlantic Alliance would extend its influence to the borders of Russia.
It would be a sign of failure for Vladimir Putin
, according to Professor Frédéric Mérand. Prior to the war in Ukraine, Russia was struggling with NATO’s increased influence in the region. Now NATO could be on Russia’s doorstep
says Mr. Mérand.
But it is not done. NATO must accept new members unanimously. However, Turkey opposes the accession of Sweden and Finland, in particular because it accuses them (especially Sweden) of not adopting a hard line towards Kurdish extremist elements considered as terrorists.
Turkey’s objection is above all a pretext
however believes Stéfanie von Hlatky, in order to extract concessions on other issues, in particular the purchase of American fighter planes.
Turkey is still a troublemaker within the Alliance
explains Frédéric Mérand, especially because it maintains close ties with Russia, among other things for the purchase of energy and armaments.
For Stefanie von Hlatky, the accession of the two countries is a question of time. Sweden and Finland have decided to apply together. The message it sends is that it won’t be one without the other. It puts a little more pressure on NATO.
Also, for the first time, the Prime Ministers of Japan, Australia and South Korea were invited to NATO. Faced with the aggressiveness of Russia and, also, the rise in strength of China, the Atlantic Alliance is looking for new allies.
Reference-ici.radio-canada.ca