ANALYSIS: How the ‘905’ gains its enormous influence in national politics | The Canadian News

As is so often the case in Canadian federal elections, the outcome may depend on the choices of the 3.6 million people who live in “905.”

Voters in the more than 30 seats in the Durham, York, Peel and Halton regions, the horseshoe-shaped region that borders Toronto and has been given the nickname “905” for the area code that many They have, they have primarily elected the Liberals in the last two elections, and indeed the Liberals have formed the government in Ottawa. But when those same voters start to elect the Conservatives, the Conservatives can usually count on claiming the government seats.

If we can speak of a pioneer region, surely the “905” must be that.

Polling company Ipsos was tracking the voting intentions of “905” voters during the month of August and, in a survey provided exclusively to Global News, found that voters in that region were certainly prepared to consider looking at Erin O’Toole’s conservatives, but that liberals Justin Trudeau had the upper hand, at least as it was when the calendar switched to September.

In a poll of 2,001 residents in the 905s completed during three different voting periods in August, Ipsos found that 37 percent were ready to vote for the Liberals and 34 percent would vote for the Conservatives. Jagmeet Singh’s NDP was elected by 23 percent, Annamie Paul’s Green Party had two percent support, and Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party of Canada had only one percent support among voters in 905.

The Ipsos survey of “905” residents was conducted from August 13-16, August 20-23, and August 27-30. Ipsos surveyed 1,501 people online and another 500 were interviewed by real people calling landlines and cell phones. The pollster uses a statistical technique called the “credibility interval” to measure the precision of his results and claims a precision rate, for this sample size and technique, of 2.9 percentage points 19 out of 20 times.

A key takeaway from Ipsos’s deep dive in 905 is that Trudeau is slightly more popular in the region than in national polls, while O’Toole was less popular. That would be a net positive for liberals.

And yet another key finding from the 905 poll: Only 41 percent of those surveyed said the Trudeau administration deserved re-election, while 59 percent said it was time for another party to take over. That would be clearly negative for the liberals.

In any case, the poll also underscores the willingness of voters in this region to move their votes and that, along with the size of the region, gives the 905 their king-maker status.

While voters in the 25 constituencies in Toronto are (with occasional exceptions) as liberal as voters in the 30 constituencies in Alberta are (also with the rare exception) reliable conservatives, voters in the 905s moved conservative during the years of Stephen Harper, but they responded sharply. to the Liberals when Justin Trudeau appeared in 2015.

Pollsters, experts, and parties will argue over the precise definition of the part of the Greater Toronto Area outside of Toronto that we call 905. There is now broad consensus that Milton’s leadership should definitely take its place among the GTA districts – and be his Western term, but there was a time, perhaps as recently as 20 years ago, when the rural and small-town character of Milton distinguished it from the districts of Mississauga, Brampton, Pickering, etc.

Meanwhile, the eastern terminus of the Greater Toronto Area is Durham Pipeline. In fact, that’s why Erin O’Toole, who represents Durham driving, exhorted his fans during stops in Whitby and Mississauga last week to make him the first prime minister in our history to represent a GTA driving. Its northern boundary is generally considered to be Brampton, Vaughan, and Newmarket, but some, like me, might object and suggest that Dufferin-Caledon, just north of Brampton, should be considered a GTA / 905, as most of those living in its densely populated southern part it would work and / or shop in Brampton or Mississauga.

In any case, while at those campaign stops in 905 last week, O’Toole also emphasized his affinity with the voters there. If Justin Trudeau could proclaim, as he did during the debates of the French-speaking leaders, that he is a “proud Québécois”, then O’Toole would boast of his roots as a Bowmanville boy turned GO commuter. .

“I am a product of the 905. Because, like my parents, I later chose to raise my family in the suburbs of Toronto as well,” O’Toole said Saturday at a campaign stop at the Whitby GO station.

And make no mistake: in the 905 fight, the choice is binary: red or blue, Trudeau or O’Toole, liberal or conservative. The NDP, the Greens or any other party have only played minor roles in electoral politics in this region. In fact, in the last 60 years, only one deputy who was no a Conservative or Liberal won in this region and his name was Ed Broadbent, Oshawa’s new Democrat from 1968 until the 1993 election.

That trend will almost certainly continue into 2021. Liberals currently hold all but five seats in 905 and if O’Toole has any hope of becoming the first GTA prime minister, his party must make progress here.

Here are a couple of runs in the 905 races to watch on Monday night:

• King-VaughanThis is one of several reruns of 2019 taking place across the country where current Liberal and Elders Minister Deb Schulte again faces off against Anna Roberts, a longtime financial services industry resident long time. Schulte won in 2019 by just 1,141 votes, or 1.8 percent. Given the current state of polls in Ontario, this time it could be even closer.
• Richmond HillLiberal incumbent Majid Jowhari was born in Tehran and has been criticized by some in the Iranian diaspora in Canada and by his political opponents for not opposing the Iranian regime as strongly as they would like. In 2019, this was one of the closest races in the country with Jowhari prevailing over Conservative candidate and MP of the era Harper Costas Menegakis by 212 votes or 0.4 percent. Many conservatives said at the time that it was a great example of how the People’s Party of Canada hurt conservatives. The PPC in 2019 got just 507 votes or 1.0 percent of all votes cast, but if even half had gone to Menegakis, it might as well have won. This will be another rematch in 2021 for Jowhair against Menegakis. And for good measure, both 2019 PPC candidate Igor Tvorogov and 2019 NDP candidate Adam DeVita are running again as well.
• Newmarket-Aurora: Right on the northern border of the 905, this walk is run by incumbent Tony Van Bynen, former mayor of Newmarket. The Liberals have maintained this while Trudeau has been in power, but the Conservatives won it in 2008 and 2011 when Harper was in power. The Conservatives lost by just five points to Van Bynen in 2019, there isn’t much ground to make up to make up this race.
• Oakville: The leadership is led by Anita Anand, a deputy for the first time in 2019 who ended up playing the key role of the country’s vaccine buyer as Minister of Public Services and Procurement in Trudeau’s cabinet. Trudeau held a rally in his driving on Sunday night and while there were some logistical reasons for doing so (the campaign wanted a drive-in movie), there may also be some good strategic reasons for doing so. Anand won by a relatively comfortable margin of 7.4 percent or 4,704 votes but, like Newmarket, Oakville turned conservative in 2008 and again in 2011 for Harper. Sure, Anand should be the frontrunner, but if there is some kind of “blue surge” in 905, conservative home loan business owner Kerry Colborne could see an unexpected win.

David Akin is the chief political correspondent for Global News.