Analysis: Early Voting break will help in Preakness

If Epicenter runs his race, he will win the Preakness.

It really is that simple. By almost any measure, the Steve Asmussen-trained, Joel Rosario-ridden The epicenter is the clear class of the field. for the second stage of the Triple Crown series. He settled in as the morning line favorite and will be the postseason favorite on Saturday at 7 pm, probably by a sizable margin.

He has top speed figures. Most of the profits. His trainer and his jockey are among the best in the game. And he would have won the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago, were it not for Rich Strike, who passed in the Preakness, having the trifecta of speed, travel and luck working his way up.

But this is a horse race. It is seldom as simple as it seems.

The vast majority of handicappers will look at the past performances of all nine entrants in this Preakness and determine that Epicenter has the best resume of the bunch. The problem is that not all the data is in those graphs. Just two weeks ago, Epicenter was part of a Kentucky Derby where some of the fractions were so dazzling that many contenders simply burned out before the stretch.

So bettors have to wonder how much Epicenter has in their tank for this one.

This is not the 20-horse Derby. There are only nine in this field. Yes, an 81-1 shot just won the Race for the Roses, proving that anything can happen. Fenwick, 1-for-6 for life, would be the surprise of surprises and will be one of the longest shots on Saturday. So will Happy Jack, who broke his maiden on his first opening; in four starts since then, he has been beaten by a combined 69 lengths.

Everyone else has a path that would give them a real shot at winning, believe it or not.

The Preakness won’t be like the Derby from a tactical standpoint. It will be fast, there will be pace, but the first four furlongs will not be ridden by horses doing the Usain Bolt impression as was the case at Churchill Downs. And there won’t be any horses trying to fall far, far, far back to set up big finishing kicks, either. Expect most of these horses to be somewhat bunched up most of the way, perhaps no more than five or six lengths separating the contending group.

The streamlining starts at the rail, which means he’ll have the shortest path and the pace should be perfectly set for him. Creative Minister will have to be close to the head to get the best shot at him. Secret Oath, the filly that won the Kentucky Oaks for legend, D. Wayne Lukas, It can also have a turbo button, because when you are asked for your best run, it doesn’t take long to give it. That always comes in handy in Pimlico.

Armagnac, if he gets to the lead early, he might have enough to stay there and that will be a story to watch. And Skippylongstocking, from the outside post, comes into this race rested and in three consecutive starts where he showed improvement.

But the race should come down to two horses: epicenter and early voting. Both are likely to be very close to the front all the way.

Here’s what he doesn’t like about early voting: This is only the fourth start of his career. Here’s what you’ll like: His connections took him to the Preakness, though they could have gone to the Kentucky Derby. They chose this career and they chose it for a reason. He’s gotten better with every outing and has the speed to go one step at a time with Epicenter.

On paper, Epicenter is the better horse. However, I have to wonder if a small speed boost at the end of another costs it again.

The election is Early Voting, on Epicenter and Secret Oath.

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