An FYI to Canadian MPs: Hamas is lying about the death toll in Gaza

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The death toll in Gaza was repeatedly cited by Canadian parliamentarians on Monday as they voted on an NDP resolution to “officially recognize the state of Palestine” and demand an immediate ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war — which was amended at the last minute before being passed in the House of Commons by a vote of 204-117.

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Over and over, MPs claimed that 32,000 Gazans have been killed by Israel — most of them women and children. Over and over, they gave just one justification for recognizing a “state” that is run by a listed terrorist entity: The death toll.

But what if the death toll has been faked?

Because, almost certainly, it has been. Five reasons:

The source. There is just one (1) source for all of the numbers cited by Canadian parliamentarians: The Gaza Health Ministry. Hamas seized control of Gaza in 2007 and took over the ministry, ensuring their own people ran it.

The ministry’s director general, Medhat Abbas, answers directly to Hamas. Abbas has let Hamas store weapons in Gaza hospitals, operate out of them and even keep Israeli hostages prisoner in some hospitals.

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During the Second World War, Canada and its allies did not accept what the National Socialist German Doctors’ League had to say about casualties because they had a vested interest in lying. Why would Canada now accept the word of a “health ministry” run by a terrorist organization?

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The precedent. On Oct. 17, 2023, the Gaza Health Ministry declared al-Ahli Hospital in Gaza had been bombed by Israel and 500 people killed. It made headlines around the world.

The problem: It was a lie. The hospital was not destroyed — it still stands — and hundreds were not killed. And, most importantly, Israel did not do it.

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The Palestinian side did. Human Rights Watch is no friend of Israel, but it has confirmed that a Palestinian “rocket-propelled munition” hit the hospital parking lot, not the hospital itself. On the Gaza Healthy Ministry death toll? Concluded Human Rights Watch: “(We are) unable to corroborate the count.”

Note, also, this important conclusion, which we will return to shortly: “(The Gaza Health Ministry death toll) is significantly higher than other estimates and displays an unusually high killed-to-injured ratio and appears out of proportion with the damage visible on site.”

The eyewitnesses. The first casualty of war is truth, of course. It is hard, if not impossible, to determine the truth on a battlefield.

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That is the case in the Israel-Hamas war, too: Neither side has permitted any truly independent body or media organization to enter the war zone. That has led to multiple governments and media organizations simply taking the Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry at its word.

Is it a good idea to accept the word of an organization whose master carried out the massacre of Oct. 7 in the first place?

That’s a rhetorical question.


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The statistics. Abraham J. Wyner is a professor of statistics and data science at the University of Pennsylvania. Last week, he published an important analysis of the Gaza Health Ministry’s numbers in the magazine Tablet. Wyner carefully reviewed the Gaza Health Ministry’s death toll claims and concluded: “The numbers are not real. That much is obvious to anyone who understands how naturally occurring numbers work. The casualties are not overwhelmingly women and children and the majority may be Hamas fighters.”

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Why? Wyner looked at the total number of Gaza deaths from the start of the war on Oct. 27 to now. On a graph, the number grows by the same amount every single day, showing a perfect line going upward. Says Wyner: “This regularity is almost surely not real. One would expect quite a bit of variation day to day … the Gaza ministry is releasing fake daily numbers that vary too little.”


The mistakes. The Gaza Health Ministry appears to have another error that calls into question much of what they’ve claimed: The ceasefire.

Remember? There was a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas from Nov. 24 to Nov. 30. A week, essentially, in which hostages were released, humanitarian aid was received and the fighting stopped. In that week, two strong critics of Israel — the United Nations and Al Jazeera — said two (2) Palestinians were shot and killed.

But the Gaza Health Ministry published data claiming that casualties continued to grow at an alarming pace during the ceasefire week. The ministry claimed deaths had topped 15,000 during the truce period and even said that most of them were women and children.

How can that be? Who was killed and where? Was the November ceasefire faked?

The fake, here, is just about anything said by the Gaza Health Ministry. And, tragically this week, many of our members of Parliament took them at their word.

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