Allison Hanes: It’s decision day in Quebec

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A civics lesson, some math equations, and a motivational talk.

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That’s what you’ll get from me this beautiful Monday morning, Decision Day in the 43rd Quebec General Election.

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The campaign is over, the speeches are over, and the only poll that matters now is the one that will be tabulated tonight, starting at 8 pm It is the voters’ turn to choose our government for the next four years. I would never tell you how to vote, but I am going to tell you to go out and vote.

It is your right, after all. Do you really want to take it for granted?

Democracy is more fragile than you think. Last week, armed guards went door-to-door in four occupied regions of Ukraine to force people to vote at gunpoint in a hastily organized referendum to join Russia. On Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin used the mock results for illegal appending Ukrainian territory. Closer to home, former US President Donald Trump’s refusal to acknowledge his 2020 defeat led to a mob storming the Capitol, nearly pulling off a coup in what is purportedly the world’s strongest democracy.

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There are many reasons to stay home, for sure. Maybe you have other things to do. Maybe you think it won’t make a difference. Or maybe some of the political parties are counting on them not to care. Did you ever think of it that way? This is your chance to prove them wrong.

According to Quebec electionsthe highest turnout in a provincial election was 85.2 percent in 1976, when the Parti Québécois, led by René Lévesque, was victorious for the first time.

Since 1931, the turnout rate in Quebec elections has generally exceeded 70 percent, and in those held during the Quiet Revolution and before the two sovereignty referendums in 1980 and 1995, more than 80 percent of eligible voters they went to the polls.

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The big exception was 2008, when the rate fell to 57 percent in the election that gave Jean Charest’s Liberals a third term after a brief spell as a minority government. The second-worst turnout for most of the last century was in 2018, when just 66.4 percent of eligible Quebecers cast their ballots and put François Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec in office for the first time.

Why did so many voters stay home last time? In part, a paradigm shift away from the old sovereignist-federalist dynamic may have lowered the stakes. So many elections in the last 50 years have felt like a decision about Quebec’s future in Canada. For the first time in a long time, separation was not the issue on the ballot, perhaps leaving people feeling voting was less urgent.

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Some Quebecers, including many Anglophones, immigrants and minorities, may also have felt their support was taken for granted.

People may still feel that way now, or maybe even more so. But the last four years have shown that sovereignty does not have to be on the table for Quebec to experience transformational change. So would you rather stay on the sidelines or give your opinion?

Despite what the polls may project, the results are never predetermined. Surprises can happen. Annoyances occur. Just as important as electing a government is electing an effective opposition to hold those in power accountable.

The breaking of the old logjam of yes or no has produced a range of new options. There are five major parties vying for seats and several smaller ones fielding candidates in a handful of constituencies.

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There is the current CAQ, the Liberal Party of Quebec, Québec solidaire, the Parti Québécois, and the Conservative Party of Quebec, not to mention the upstart Canadian Party of Quebec, Bloc Montréal, and the Parti Vert du Québec. They have all articulated very different views.

With so many options, the number of votes needed to claim a seat in the National Assembly can now be lower under our simple majority system. In extremely close races, every X will count and each ballot may carry more weight than it normally does, given the potential for vote splitting.

Older voters reliably go to the polls in large numbers. But younger voters can and have made a difference when they are engaged and inspired.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals were propelled to victory in 2015 largely thanks to an unexpected surge in the youth vote. Ballots cast by Canadians aged 18 to 24 rose 18.3 percentage points to 57 percent, up from 38 in 2011: the largest increase since Canada election started keeping records. Similarly, turnout for voters ages 25 to 34 rose by 12.3 percentage points to 57 percent, from 45 percent in the previous election. Older Canadians still had the highest turnout, but in 2015 the youngsters showed their strength.

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This is the mathematical part of why it is important to vote. But there is also the emotional component linked to the fulfillment of our democratic duty.

People tend to vote when they feel the stakes are high. Well, the whole planet is at stake. The next four years will be critical in the fight against climate change, in Quebec as elsewhere. By the time the next election comes around in 2026, we will be most of the way to 2030, the year in which many targets to reduce emissions and commitments on the path to carbon neutrality are upheld. Time is ticking on humanity’s ability to deal with this existential threat.

Strengthen a crumbling health system, ensure every Quebecer has a family doctor, rebuild dilapidated schools, reconcile with indigenous peoples, respect minority rights, access health and social services in English, access mental health, coping with labor shortages, being able to afford a roof over your head, being able to afford groceries, for that matter, are also urgent reasons to vote. Choose your option.

To be sure, there is palpable anger and resentment toward political leaders of various persuasions for the things they have done and said, as well as the things they have not done and said, both during the campaign and before.

But the only way to let them know what you think is to get out there and vote. It doesn’t mean you’ll get the result you want, but it sends the message that you won’t be ignored.

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