If it is double digits, political marketing experts catalog, any disadvantage in the campaigns is practically insurmountable. At least that’s how it seemed in Aguascalientes, where the PAN flag-bearer Tere Jiménez doubled the voting intention of her closest rival, the brunette Nora Ruvalcaba.
A month of dirty war has narrowed the gap. And according to the measurements that Mario Delgado released at the end of last week, his standard-bearer has a floor of 35% of voting intentions. In the remaining four weeks of the campaign —they believe in Morena’s war room— the contest for the hydro-warm governorship could close with a photo finish.
The 2022 electoral calendar records six events. One month before the appointment at the polls, only Oaxaca and Quintana Roo would have their destiny defined and they face scenarios of closed electoral competition in Hidalgo, Tamaulipas and Durango.
Morena does not govern any of the six entities where there will be elections on June 5, but the high levels of presidential approval and the social programs of the Fourth Transformation opened up a full-car perspective.
Aguascalientes would be, in any case, the exception. That Bajío entity has never had a left-wing governor and for two decades it has been a solid PAN stronghold. Tere Jiménez was mayor of the capital and to become the first governor she has the support of the PRI and the PRD.
In Hidalgo, on the other hand, Julio Menchaca, the Morenista standard-bearer for governor, started the campaign with a comfortable lead. The first signs of the decline in his strength occurred two weeks ago, on the morning that the president criticized the Alliance candidate, Carolina Viggiano.
Just last Thursday, Menchaca canceled his participation in the citizen debate convened by Coparmex, which generated confusion and annoyance among members of that business organization. The event was attended by the national president of the employers’ union, José Medina Mora Icaza, with the expectation of hearing the offers of the two leaders of the contest.
But the war room of the morenista standard-bearer chose not to risk the advantage —of just 10 points, according to the latest tracking poll— and dedicate these weeks to the primary objective: strengthening the electoral structure to counteract the growth of the Alliance standard-bearer.
Durango is the failed project of this electoral season for Morena. As happened in Nuevo León, in 2021, the nomination of a figure of PRI origin without roots with local groups —mainly the PT— has slowed down the AMLO effect. The last bet is that the candidates for the 58 mayorships —the municipal election is concurrent to that of governor— maintain Marina Vitela as a competitive rival, against the aliancista Esteban Villegas. As in Aguascalientes, the intention to vote that the emecista standard-bearers arouse reduces the chances of the morenistas.
Given the weakening of their candidates, Moreno’s bet for the last month of the campaigns would be the activation of negative campaigns. In Tamaulipas, that last resort is forced at this point in the contest.
Side effects
DISCREPANCIES. More than 35,000 direct jobs required the construction of the new Olmeca refinery, in Paraíso, Tabasco. In the final stretch of this mega-project —which will be delivered just in two months—, the federal Executive boasted the quality of the project, the speed of the work and the direct investment, which some sources estimate at 12,000 million dollars, 25% more than initially budgeted. National and foreign companies —Ica Fluor, Techint and Samsung were the main contractors— required this workforce to meet delivery deadlines.
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Journalist and columnist for El Economista, author of Doña Perpetua: Elba Esther Gordillo’s power and opulence. Elba Esther Gordillo against the SEP.