For at least two election cycles in the United States, observers, including myself, have been emphasizing the importance of demographic changes in Texas.
The Lone Star State is now populated by a considerable number of minority representatives who overwhelmingly support the Democratic candidacies. For the first time in the 2020 election, analysts were seriously speculating about a Democratic candidate’s chances of winning the presidency.
While it is still prudent to wait before considering Democratic domination for this state which has supported Republicans without interruption since 1980, one can envisage ad hoc Democratic breakthroughs, mainly in urban constituencies.
The Democrats of Texas are therefore starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel and they are not content to consider gains for the representatives or senators that will be sent to Washington, they intend to shake the Republican majority within local institutions and even plan to overthrow Governor Greg Abbott in 2022.
the New York Times, the Axios website and Hill’s daily all suggested the same candidate to face the incumbent governor: Beto O’Rourke. You may remember that the latter did not have much success during his participation in the Democratic primaries aimed at choosing the Democratic presidential candidate, but it should not be forgotten that he heated Ted Cruz in 2018 and that he had previously obtained three mandates as representative.
Not only is the name of Beto O’Rourke mentioned more and more often, but he seems interested in this major challenge. While this entrepreneur’s candidacy is not without interest, I can’t help but remember how disappointing his performance in the 2020 primaries was.
While I have personal reservations about his potential, his supporters believe they have the tools they need. While I have in mind his failure in 2020, they remember the enthusiasm generated by that of 2018. Moreover, despite his defeat, he was able to amass a war chest of more than 80 million dollars. If money is the sinews of war, its ability to solicit generous donors gives it an advantage.
Beto O’Rourke Governor of Texas? Don’t bet a small jackpot on this possibility, but the scenario might not be as far-fetched as it might have been before the pandemic. More than 50% of Texans are dissatisfied with Greg Abbott, and a poll shows O’Rourke is only five points behind.
Governor Abbott may well be his worst enemy in 2022. Not only has his handling of the pandemic disappointed, but many voters still can’t forgive him for the collapse of the electricity grid that has left many Texans in the dark.
Whether in 2022 or 2024, it will therefore be necessary to keep an eye on the political situation in Texas. Things are changing rapidly and there are fewer Republican strongholds there. I end on an anecdotal note by recalling that in addition to Beto O’Rourke, the pollsters are interested in another candidacy that hits the headlines, that of actor Matthew McConaughey. The Oscar winner would win by nine points ahead of Greg Abbott.
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