A civil war among our neighbors, really?

Bloody street fights and soldiers and militiamen who behave like barbarians.

Bombings that tear the sky and destroy cities.

A country where no one is safe anymore and where, somewhere between New York and Washington, there is a mass grave full of corpses.

Welcome… to the United States.

This scenario, straight from the imagination of British filmmaker Alex Garland, is that of the film Civil warwhich has been, since its release on April 12, one of the most popular in North America.

Could a conflict like the one depicted in this fictional feature film become a reality? Is the scenario of this film plausible?

I invited Julien Tourreille – researcher at the Raoul-Dandurand Chair in Strategic and Diplomatic Studies at UQAM – to the cinema to get his opinion. And I can tell you right away that as soon as I left the theater, I understood that he had not been convinced by the premise of the film.

What we are witnessing is not improbable “if we bear in mind the potential degree of violence in American society,” this political scientist first said.

“Yes, there are a lot of weapons in circulation. Yes, there are organized militias. Yes, there are very marked political differences,” he added.

But, there is a but. And it is fundamental.

Even if the Americans are armed to the teeth, Julien Tourreille does not think that the current divisions, as serious as they are, can lead them to a civil war.

Besides, if the paramilitary militiamen “were so motivated or so angry in relation to others and in relation to the state, they would have already had the opportunity to fight,” he said.

The riot of January 6, 2021 in Washington “could have been the trigger” of such a conflict. But the insurrection resulted in 5 deaths and more than 100 police officers injured and there was no follow-up.

Small clarification about the scenario: we quickly learn in the film that 19 American states have seceded and that the offensive against Washington is led by the “Western front”, that is to say an alliance between the Texas and California.

How can we think that a state associated with Republicans (Texas) could fight alongside a state that has systematically voted for the Democratic presidential candidate since 1992 (California)?

It’s “a funny proposition,” says Julien Tourreille, but it’s not completely far-fetched.

“Either we are in the near future, in a horizon of almost 10 years, and Texas has evolved so much demographically that it has become a blue (Democratic) state. Either it is an alliance of circumstance because the two states are, for diametrically opposed reasons, angry with federal interventionism and demand that their skills be respected,” he says.

And added: “And above all to have military resources superior to those of the federal government. »

The real problem with the film, according to him, is rather that it does not explain the causes of this civil war.

We understand that the White House is run by a despot. We know that he is in his third term, that he dismantled the FBI and gave the green light to airstrikes against American citizens. But that’s about all.

“I find that it’s lacking and that it’s a big weakness of the film,” says the political scientist.

He even believes that it harms the objective of the work, which is obviously to warn Americans against the threat of civil war.

I was curious: how does Julien Tourreille approach the question of a potential civil war with his students?

He first explains to them that American society is indeed very divided, but then he clarifies that this is not the case for all issues.

“I tell them that on certain subjects, it’s not that polarized. Abortion, in particular. We see that even in very red (Republican) states, the issue does not divide that much. Or, at least, that there are very clear majorities in many states in favor of the right to abortion. »

For my part, I always exercise great caution when I approach the question of the risks of violence linked to the political situation in the United States.

We know that a large number of Americans are worried about seeing the situation degenerate. Two years ago, a YouGov poll/The Economist found that 43% of Americans say civil war is somewhat likely (29%) or very likely (14%) in the next 10 years.

Nothing to reassure us.

As unlikely as such a scenario is, the Trump factor is an important variable that I believe prevents us from confidently predicting the outcome of the equation. He is no more shy than before in peppering his speeches with violent remarks.

I won’t venture to predict what will happen if he loses the election next November.

Neither does Julien Tourreille. On the other hand, he remains optimistic.

“It’s an unknown and a source of concern. I find it difficult to predict what the reaction of his supporters would be if he lost again. I think it also depends on the magnitude of a possible defeat. And the reaction at the state level,” he says.

“If the Americans do like in Georgia in 2020 and say that we monitored the election and that everything went well, I still believe that democratic practice is sufficiently anchored, even among the most protesters, for they end up resigning themselves and accepting the result of possible defeat. »

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