The oil prices rose more than 4% this Thursday, after the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that three million barrels a day of Russian oil and products could be missing from next month and despite the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise rates.
The supply loss would be much larger than the projected drop in demand of one million barrels a day of oil caused by rising fuel prices, the IEA said on Wednesday.
Brent crude futures were up $4, or 4.1%, at $102.02 a barrel. For its part, US crude West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose $3.82, or 4%, to settle at $98.86 a barrel.
Both contracts fell the day before, following an unexpected surge in US crude stockpiles and signs of progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.
Morgan Stanley raised its Brent price forecast by $20 for the third quarter of 2022, to $120 a barrel, forecasting a drop in Russian output of around 1 million bpd from April. That drop will more than offset a downward revision to world demand of some 600,000 barrels a day, he noted.
Prices fell on Wednesday after news that US oil inventories rose by 4.3 million barrels in the week to March 11, to 415.9 million barrels, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
The oil market did not take into account the decision of the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, as expected.