The Omicron variant poses a surprising new threat to Ontario’s vulnerable long-term care households, facing the prospect of “rapid and uncontrolled growth” in COVID-19 cases for the first time since Wave 2, warn officials. experts.
Since spring, long-term care has largely been spared the worst, as the launch of the vaccine in the province prevented a repeat of the massive outbreaks that devastated the sector during the first and second waves, killing nearly 4,000.
But, experts warn, Omicron’s increased ability to infect vaccinated people could make it more likely that the virus will once again spread through Ontario nursing homes in a way we haven’t seen in nearly a year. anus.
“Based on all that we know, we will have a real challenge with the potential for rapid uncontrolled growth in long-term care homes,” said Dr. Peter Jüni, Scientific Director of the Ontario COVID Volunteer Scientific Advisory Board.
“I’m absolutely terrified to be honest,” said Dr. Amit Arya, a hospice physician who specializes in long-term care and who has seen firsthand the damage caused by the first two waves.
“If this is as communicable as people are hearing, we could be seeing bleakness,” said Miranda Ferrier, president of the Ontario Personal Support Workers Association.
Seniors’ homes were at the epicenter of Ontario’s first year with COVID-19, but have relatively spared the worst of the virus in the months since. Ontario reported 3,901 resident deaths at the end of the second wave on March 31, 2021, and since then only 128 more fatal cases have been reported. At the peak of Wave 2, up to 430 elderly households reported active outbreaks in a single day. But since then, outbreaks on the scale of those witnessed have been averted in homes like Scarborough’s Tendercare, where more than 80 residents died of COVID, and Pickering’s Orchard Village, which saw 71 deaths from the virus. Since September, the most active outbreaks the province has reported in a single day is 25.
So far, emerging data on Omicron suggests that vaccines should continue to offer significant protection against serious diseases, especially with a booster dose. But due to the increased transmissibility of Omicron, as of Monday, the variant had a breeding number of about four, meaning that four people will contract the disease from each infectious person, on average, a greater number of residents, visitors, and vaccinated long-term care residents. staff are at risk of infection than with the Delta variant, with its breeding number slightly higher than one. The difference is enough to greatly increase the chances of an outbreak.
That’s why experts are calling for priority to be given to third doses for all nursing home staff, in addition to residents who have not yet received one. Ontario began providing third doses to seniors living in group care settings in August; As of Dec. 8, more than 86 percent of eligible residents had received a third dose, while about 32 percent of eligible staff had received a booster, according to the long-term care ministry.
The province has set a December 13 deadline for all long-term care employees to get vaccinated with two doses or face losing their jobs; As of Nov. 13, ministry data shows that 99 percent of long-term care staff, students, and volunteers had received both doses.
The long-term care ministry did not respond to Star’s question whether it would increase booster injections specifically for staff.
Although Ontario’s vaccination rates should reduce the virus’ lethality per case compared to last year, the question of exactly how dangerous the Omicron variant is for vulnerable older people, vaccinated or not, is still unclear.
“We don’t know how serious it will be. That’s the big question, ”Jüni said, emphasizing the need to consider the possibility of a fourth targeted dose, if necessary.
And the risk of flare-ups goes beyond that clinical question.
The industry is already beset by a serious labor shortage that could be exacerbated if sick Omicron-infected staff have to stay home, said Ferrier of the Ontario Personal Support Workers Association.
“In the second wave… we had no staff. It’s even worse now. I don’t know how they are doing it, ”he said. “It is a miracle that people are taken care of.”
Ferrier added that it doesn’t matter how much money the province allocates to frontline workers, nor does it matter how often officials praise the PSWs as frontline heroes. “We need help and support now, in this moment, in this second.”
On Tuesday, the province announced new restrictions in a bid to keep long-term care homes safe, including requiring all visitors to be fully vaccinated, increasing testing and suspending nightly visits by off-site residents.
Dr. Samir Sinha, director of geriatrics for Sinai Health and University Health Network, said there is no reason why the province could not launch a third-dose vaccination campaign for long-term care staff similar to that of the residents at the end of August.
“When you already have a understaffed system, and then there is a risk that staff are more prone to getting infected and potentially getting sick and being absent, that puts everyone at greater risk,” he said, noting that he thinks it is “inevitable.” a number of the households will see outbreaks of Omicron.
Arya added: “We are already dealing with a really serious shortage of healthcare workers in long-term care, which predates the pandemic and then got worse during the pandemic. It feels like this nightmare could get even worse because there could be so many healthcare workers out and about in quarantine. “
Donna Duncan, executive director of the Ontario Long Term Care Association, which represents 70 percent of long-term care homes in the province, said in a statement Tuesday that “we must do whatever is necessary for the safety of our most vulnerable in the long term. attention ”, noting that the human resources crisis facing the sector is the“ greatest risk ”for high-quality care.
Reference-www.thestar.com