MOSCOW – They speak of coups in Kiev and, in Moscow, of a cultural genocide.
In eastern Ukraine, on the front lines of the protracted civil war with separatist fighters, a ceasefire agreement is being breached hundreds of times a day and with impunity.
In western Russia, tens of thousands of soldiers and equipment are gathering along the border.
In any conflict, the battle of words precedes the actual fight, and here it is no different.
But the accusations and threats have escalated dangerously in recent days, ushering in a Cold War-style showdown that has put Russia and Ukraine, as well as Canada and its NATO allies, on the brink of war in Europe.
Tensions have reached such a point, said Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly, that “the risk of miscalculation is a problem in itself.”
“History forces us to be vigilant and, in that sense, we have to be there, shoulder to shoulder with the Ukrainians,” he told Latvia’s Star after a meeting of NATO foreign ministers that discussed sanctions and other. consequences in the event of a Russian invasion.
Canada has nearly 1,000 soldiers, a frigate and fighter jets deployed on NATO missions in Eastern Europe, missions that were fueled by Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea from Ukraine and the support Moscow provided to separatists in the eastern region. of Donbass in Ukraine.
Frictions on the Ukraine-Russia border have skyrocketed for much of the past week.
Moscow says Kiev is not abiding by agreements aimed at stopping the fighting and creating an autonomous zone in the Donbass that would protect the language and culture of the Russian-speaking majority and free them from a policy of “forced ukrainianization.”
“This population is suffering. It is on the brink of disaster. The military circle of the Kiev regime is becoming increasingly narrow around these people, ”said Maria Zakharova, a spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, suggesting that half of Ukraine’s army, 125,000 soldiers, has already been deployed.
This followed Ukraine’s own accusations that about 100,000 Russian soldiers were concentrated on the border with Ukraine with the potential to invade their neighbor as early as January. Furthermore, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced that his security services had uncovered a Russian-backed coup plot against him that was due to take place this week.
To escalate tensions, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko donned a military uniform earlier this week, rallied his generals and vowed to fight alongside Russia against Ukraine, its southern neighbor and Kiev’s western protectors.
NATO members are largely united in warning Russia that it will face retaliation if its actions lead to war. But Russian President Vladimir Putin had his own rebuttal, saying that the consolidation of the military alliance in Ukraine, for him, was a “red line” that could force a Russian military response.
“If some kind of attack system appears on the territory of Ukraine, the flight time to Moscow will be seven to 10 minutes, and five minutes in the event of a hypersonic weapon being deployed,” he said on Tuesday. “What are we going to do in such a scenario? Then we will have to create something similar in relation to those who threaten us in that way.
Alexander Baunov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center, said the aggressive discourse from Moscow and Kiev is likely intended to influence a lingering conflict that shows little hope for a speedy resolution.
“The problem is that when you use this instrument, declaring that you are ready to fight for your red lines … there may come a time when you have to, when you are forced to fight,” he said. “Otherwise, the instruments stop working and nobody believes you anymore.”
Locals who have remained in the cities of the breakaway republics of Lugansk and Donetsk since the fighting began in 2014 have grown accustomed to rhetoric and politely refuse to discuss politics.
But the haunting reality of life in a conflict zone cannot be ignored.
Amid photos of award ceremonies and notices for snow removal and COVID-19 vaccination clinics organized in the rebel territory, Alexei Kulemzin, Donetsk city manager, included the news of a grenade that exploded in a house in the outskirts of the city on November 24, causing death. one and wounding another.
Ukrainian forces reported on their Facebook page, along with forensic photos, about the mid-afternoon bombing of a railway depot in a small town northeast of Lugansk. November 29.
The barrage of fire, confirmed by the ceasefire monitors of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and counted as one of 163 ceasefire violations in their November 30 daily report, sent to a man to the hospital with a head injury and allegedly terrorized a woman whose home was hit.
Baunov is betting that if Ukraine and Russia end up in war, it will start as an escalation between the Ukrainian military seeking to regain their territory from separatist forces in Donbass, who would then call the Russians to their side.
But yes, when and under what conditions this could occur, it is a delicate and dangerous calculation for both Putin and Zelenskiy, one that could result in many more casualties than the 14,000 already dead since the fighting began in 2014.
“Politicians don’t just make the right decisions. Sometimes they make wrong decisions, ”Baunov said. “That is the problem with politics.”
Reference-www.thestar.com