Philippe J. Fournier: A new survey looking at federal-provincial attitudes suggests that even in Quebec and Alberta, regional resentment is not increasing
From a strictly political point of view, the pandemic may have acted as a political stress test for provincial-federal relations in Canada. In the past year and a half, we have witnessed a number of roadblocks between the provinces and the feds. To name just a few of an exhaustive list related to the pandemic: While healthcare is a provincial jurisdiction, it was the federal government that negotiated with the pharmaceutical giants for the procurement (and distribution) of vaccines, and although the provinces are in charge of elderly care, federal liberals campaigned to implement national standards last fall. This is politics in a decentralized federation like Canada.
Just before the holidays, the Vancouver-based pollster Research Co. took the pulse from Canadians on their satisfaction with provincial and federal leaders, as well as an interesting measure of provincial resentment across the country.
Let’s start with the Prime Minister. To the statement: “My province would be better off with a different prime minister in Ottawa,” half of the respondents (49 percent) agreed, while 36 percent disagreed. Unsurprisingly, the majority in the western provinces agreed that a change in the PMO would be beneficial to their respective provinces. Only in Quebec and Atlantic Canada were there more respondents who disagreed (and hardly).
Now let’s dive into the premiere numbers. To the statement: “My province would be better off with a different prime minister in charge,” the results show that half of the respondents (51 percent) agreed and a third disagreed. Majorities in conservative Ontario provinces and across the Prairies believe their provinces would benefit from a change in prime minister, with the highest share at 73 percent in Alberta. Only 17 percent of Alberta respondents disagreed.
Even Quebec’s prime minister, François Legault, scored lower than in other recent surveys on provincial satisfaction: 48 percent of Quebecers agree that Quebec would be better off with a change of prime minister. Considering this Research Co. survey was out in the field in mid-December, just as COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations were trending strongly upward, it is not unlikely that the pandemic has started to affect the stellar popularity of Legault for the past three years. Two weeks before, the last tracker Léger had measured a 70 percent approval rating for Legault’s handling of the pandemic.
As for British Columbia’s Prime Minister John Horgan, he is once again among the country’s most esteemed prime ministers. Only 35 percent of BC respondents agree that a change would be beneficial, while about half (47 percent) disagree.
Finally, one question in particular caught my eye in this Research Co survey: “Agree or disagree? My province would be better off as its own country ”. Across Canada, 25 percent of respondents agreed, while 65 percent disagreed. Breaking down the results by country region, we find that the proportion of respondents who believe their province would be better off as a country jumps to 38 percent in Alberta and 30 percent in Quebec (see full tables here).
Naturally, we must be careful with regional subsamples, since their uncertainty is greater than with the full sample. However, we note that nearly a third of Quebec respondents believe the province would be better off as a separate country, which is consistent with the majority. recent figures on Quebec sovereignty (Since Quebec sovereignty hasn’t been on the radar much in recent years, polls on the subject have been less frequent.)
However, if we dive into the Quebec results in more detail, we find that only 16 percent of Quebec respondents “strongly agree” with this statement, and another 14 percent say they “moderately agree.”
These data should help put an end to persistent rumors online that François Legault may be secretly preparing a third referendum on Quebec’s independence. Although polls have shown that Legault may be the most esteemed prime minister of recent decades in Quebec, his popularity and nationalistic attitude have not translated into additional support for sovereignty.
As for Alberta, 16 percent of respondents “strongly agree” that the province would fare on its own, while another 22 percent “moderately agree.” According to Research Co. CEO Mario Canseco: “Separatist sentiment in Alberta is currently close to the levels seen in December 2019 (40 percent).”
To be sure, resentment toward Ottawa has risen in Alberta since Trudeau and the Liberals came to power in 2015. But remember, the pro-Western independence Maverick Party won just 1 percent of Alberta’s vote in the election. last fall, while at the provincial level the Wildrose Independence Party have been voting between 5 and 15 percent for most of 2021 (The best WIP poll was 20 percent province-wide vote intention, as measured by an Angus Reid poll in June 2021.)
Regional resentment and separatism will always be something to observe in this country, such is the reality of living in a vast, diverse and multinational state. Interestingly, however, the data available so far shows that the pandemic has not significantly moved the needle on those resentments.
Reference-www.macleans.ca