Philippe J. Fournier: With seven days to go, the Liberals now have the upper hand. But a big question mark will be the impact of the Quebec Prime Minister’s endorsement of the CCP.
In reality, we did not believe that the Prime Minister of Quebec, François Legault, would be on the sidelines for the entirety of this federal campaign, did we?
While the two Federal Commission debates were featured as the highlights of the past week, it could be argued that the potentially most important event to drive votes may have taken place not in Gatineau, but in Quebec City, a few hours before the debate in English.
In an impressive press conference Thursday morning, Quebec Prime Minister François Legault gave Erin O’Toole’s Conservative Party (CCP) what amounts to an endorsement for the elimination process, warning Quebecers not to vote for the Liberals, the NDP or the Green Party: “To protect the nation of Quebec, I think we have to be careful with these parties,” he said Thursday morning. “Those three parties are not ready to transfer powers to the Quebec government.”
He even had a double drink today:
3 federal parties (PLC, NDP and Green Party) threaten the autonomy of the nation of Quebec.
1- They want to get involved in health management.
2- They refuse to cede more powers to Quebec in matters of immigration.
3- They do not rule out challenging Law 21.https://t.co/rylIrQV9mx– François Legault (@francoislegault) September 12, 2021
What impact could Legault’s words have on Quebecers’ voting intentions as they enter the final stretch of this federal campaign? At the time of this writing, it is still too early to tell whether the needle has moved on a conclusive issue for conservatives in the province. However, in the Mainstreet Research daily update this morning (using data from two of the three days presented after the debate in English on Thursday night), the Bloc Québécois rose to levels comparable to the results of the 2019 elections. If this surge in support is translated into votes next Monday, it could hurt both liberals and conservatives’ chances of winning seats in the province. We’ll have to wait and see if other polling firms earlier this week spot the same trend in favor of Yves-François Blanchet’s team.
However, with François Legault’s CAQ still reigning only at the top of voting intentions in Quebec (see Quebec Provincial Surveys here) and the prime minister’s approval ratings skyrocketing to record highs since the start of the pandemic, Erin O’Toole couldn’t have hoped for a better vote of confidence coming from Quebec, a province where the CCP has never elected more. of 12 deputies. since the founding of the party in 2003.
Here are the updated ones 338 Canadian Federal Vote Projections in Quebec:
Conservatives stand at 19 percent on average in the province. If the CCP really gets this level of support on Election Day in Quebec, it would be the party’s best result in Quebec since Stephen Harper’s first victory in 2006, when he garnered about 25 percent of the vote in the province (but it still only won 10 seats).
However, based on these numbers, the absolute best scenario for Erin O’Toole would be a harvest of 15 Quebec seats (in the 95% confidence interval). While this is not negligible, the possible paths to O’Toole’s victory in this election do not and will not depend much on what happens in Quebec. If the CCP is victorious on September 20, its Quebec MPs would remain a minor part of the conservative group (unless polls underestimate conservative support in Quebec, something that has not happened in recent federal elections).
The question remains why François Legault decided to spend valuable political capital backing a party that runs a distant third in Quebec, and whose platform includes, among other things, scrapping the $ 6 billion childcare deal that Legault and Trudeau had. they shook hands not even two months ago. and most importantly, change the equalization formula- Which, if implemented, could cost the Quebec government billions in revenue.
Then there is the question of how this will be perceived outside the province. Whether Legault’s endorsement of O’Toole will have any significant effect on the electorate outside of Quebec remains an open question. What Chantal Hébert wrote in the Toronto star: “The popularity of the prime minister can infect the conservatives in Quebec, but his support could have the opposite effect outside the province.” Considering that the CCP could, at best, win 4-5 new seats in the province, will it be worth it if Legault’s endorsement ends up costing O’Toole’s precious votes on the GTA bypasses and Lower Mainland? I don’t know the answer to these questions, but both hypotheses – that Legault’s endorsement could be a blessing or a poisoned chalice – certainly deserve reflection. We should have clearer data early next week.
Before we conclude, let’s take a closer look at the national figures. the 338 Canada Model now conservatives and liberals are tied at 32 percent a piece in the projection of the popular vote. Nevertheless, Nanos Research and Mainstreet Research both measured Liberals ahead of Conservatives (by 3 and 4 points, respectively) in their daily polls this morning. We expect several other polling firms to speak out earlier this week, so these numbers could still change dramatically before voting day:
A note on the Popular Party: There has been some disagreement in polls about the current position of the PPC. At the beginning of last week, Abacus Data, Léger and Ipsos still measured Maxime Bernier’s match between two and three percent nationally, but others like Mainstreet Research, Nanos Research and EKOS had figures between 5 and 10 percent. for the PPC. It is plausible at this point that this surge in support could muddy the waters for the CCP, as at least a fair fraction of those new PPC voters used to be CCP voters. Will the PPC divide the center-right vote enough to hamper Erin O’Toole’s efforts? It’s too early to tell.
Finally, here are the latest 338 Projections of seats in Canada. The Liberals have regained leadership with an average of 145 seats compared to 129 seats for the Conservatives. We must emphasize here that this gap of 16 seats on average between the Liberals and the CCP is much smaller than the confidence intervals of the model (of about 40 seats).
However, it is the liberals who now have the upper hand, as they appear to have regained ground lost in Ontario, British columbia, and in the Atlantic provinces.
Still, with the Bloc Québécois, the NDP and the Greens projected at more than 60 seats combined, it is increasingly likely that the 44th Parliament is a minority government. What color, we don’t know yet. There remains great uncertainty in the figures, as public opinion seems to have been changing in recent days.
This should be an eventful week. Seven days a week to go.
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Details of this projection are available in the 338 Canada Page. To find your home district, use this list of the 338 electoral districts, or use the regional links below:
Reference-www.macleans.ca