Although the labor market has already recovered the jobs lost due to the pandemic, the dynamics of two years of health distress have once again boosted the informal economy. At the end of 2021 there were registered 32.2 million people informal work, the highest amount in history, according to the National Survey of Occupation and Employment (ENOE).
At the end of 2021, the labor market has a informality rate of 56.5%, the highest level of the last 27 months; in September 2019, it registered a level of 56.6 percent. In this way, the recovery of jobs in this line indicates an adjustment of employment to the conditions of the pandemic.
“We believe that the trend through the fourth quarter of 2021 was mostly positive for the working market, even in spite of signs of weakness in economic activity. In this sense, the relative resilience that employment conditions have shown in this context is favorable, indicating that it could have already adapted to the pandemic environment, ”said Juan Carlos Alderete, executive director of economic analysis and financial market strategy at Banorte.
In December last year, 455,538 people joined the working population, but all of them did so in the informal sector. The increase in posts was due to an increase of 737,108 informal workers and a contraction of 281,570 formal posts.
On the other hand, the unemployed population had a small decrease of 70 825 people and as a result the vacancy rate it stood at 3.5%, the lowest level so far in the pandemic. However, widespread unemployment, although maintaining its decline, stands at 14.3%, largely due to the fact that the “available” non-economically active population (PNEA) remains high.
“It is almost identical to the 2019 average of 3.49%, although this indicator usually shows strong seasonal distortions in the month and the seasonally adjusted figures indicate a rate of 3.96%. In any case, the ENOE reflects that the recovery rate in the labor market was constant and although there are still gaps to close, especially in terms of quality and inclusion, it is one of the positive aspects of 2021, ”says Marcos Daniel Arias Novelo, economic analyst at Monex.
In the last month of 2021, all economic activity reported a positive balance. The agricultural sector e industrial, the latter powered by the construction, were those with the highest profits, reporting an increase of 116,053 and 269,202 seats, respectively.
“We believe that constraints on greater dynamics continue, with the pandemic still a major obstacle to achieving a higher rate of progress in some sectors of the economy. In this sense, the industry is still limited by the shocks for supply chainsAt the same time, the influx in some services remains low, ”said Juan Carlos Alderete.
Meanwhile, the service industry had an increase of 89,635 jobs in general terms, this was due to profits in transportation and various service activities that counteract declines in employment in trade, restaurants, hotels, government and professional services.
“The quality of employment, labor income and the prompt recovery of some sectors, especially trade, are pending tasks which can limit the positive effect on the economy ”, Daniel Arias explained.
The balance of the working year
With the figures reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) for December 2021, the creation of 4.2 million jobs. As a result, the annual unemployment rate dropped from 3.8 to 3.5%.
23% of the jobs created were driven by the industrial sector, within this category the activities in manufacture were those who contributed the greatest job creation. The sector of services had a better performance and was responsible for 75% of the jobs created in 2021, within this line the only economic activities that offer an employment deficit in the annual comparison are those of the government and international organizations.
As already expected, the informality it was the one with the highest profit and 68% of the jobs generated in the past year were concentrated in this sector.
Last year, the labor market managed to recover the jobs lost due to the pandemic, largely thanks to the reactivation of economic activities in sectors punished by mobility restrictions to stop the spread of the pandemic. Although no drastic changes in the delivery measures have been seen so far due to the increase in Covid-19 infections, the Omicron variant remains the main risk for employment recovery.
“Although distance measures have remained largely unchanged, there are a few institutions that have closed, such as museums in Mexico City. In addition, given the need to isolate yourself from infected people (who apparently show more moderate symptoms), we do not exclude productivity losses and even work, ”said Juan Carlos Alderete.
Reference-www.eleconomista.com.mx