The film Don’t Look Up, with a stellar cast -Meryl Streep, Leonardo DiCaprio, Jennifer Lawrence and Cate Blanchett-, so in vogue these days on social networks, is a pandemic metaphor turned into a comet. And of the unscrupulous politics that dominates the stage in democracies where lies, spectacle and corruption prevail. The media, especially television, did not fare well in this parody.
Although the film is nothing to write home about, it can be seen. It answers the questions we have been asking ourselves since the start of the pandemic in 2020: will we do better? Will we learn the lesson? Attention, spoiler: the answer is no. We will not get better or have learned anything. The proof is the semantic compromises that leaders bring with the climate catastrophe in summits without advances financed by polluters.
There are more questions: Will 2022 be better than 2021? Will the pandemic end? Will the economy grow and employment increase? Let’s be pessimistic, it’s safer.
Dangers and uncertainties
The year that starts in a few days arrives loaded with dangers and uncertainties. The most serious is the Ukraine crisis. Is this a controlled parade between NATO and Russia to distract us? Is it an alpha male game at risk of getting out of control? Are we in the run-up to a war that would have devastating consequences? We do not know what the putin games, if he intends to seize only the pro-Russian regions and improve the delivery of his fleet to the sea or if he plans a complete invasion. We are in times of calculations.
Beyond the risks of play with fire in a tinderbox, as it happened in the exYugoslavia in the 90s of the last century, a war, limited or not, would affect the natural gas price. It would be a serious setback for the EU, which faces a complex year with Brexit fringes still open and in the hands of an unpredictable Boris Johnson, with no other objective than its survival.
There are ultras rebellions in Poland Y Hungary Y presidential elections in France, a key country along with Germany you just entered the posmerkelismo. A war in Ukraine would cause another refugee crisis in a Europe that has not yet understood that the future of the welfare state and pensions depends on our ability to accept, train and integrate migrants in an aging population pyramid. This framework would be a populist gift for the extreme right and for groups that thrive on the denial of reality.
Electoral airs in the US
The year 2022 arrives loaded with electoral airs in the US, Russia’s natural rival. Although the appointment is in November, will dominate the political scene. One third of the Senate will be renewed, some major governorships, and the entire House of Representatives, in addition to other state and local elections.
Joe Biden the congressional control in the following two years, and the possibility of carrying out its policies with which it wants to settle the second term options beyond 2024. Donald Trump is also playing his long-awaited return to the White House. That is why he tries to influence the Republican primaries, to position his faithful to displace those who did not follow him in his fantasy of electoral fraud. It is not only a revenge operation, it is the first stone of the return operation.
We’ll see how the Congressional investigation into the Trump’s responsibility in the assault on the Capitol from 6 of January 2021, when a mob of hotheads attacked Congress in an undisguised coup attempt. A return from trumpism it would be a catastrophe, with him as a candidate or with a worse one.
Efecto Boric
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There is more hope in Latin America for the Boric effect and the presidential elections in Colombia and Brazil, which will determine if there is a progressive direction in the region. Regarding all the games at stake – that of Ukraine, the internal one in the US and the growing threat of the IS in the Maghreb and its impact in Libya – there is another more transcendent: the China’s military and political growth, which aspires to displace the US from the throne of the first superpower.
It won’t happen in 2022, but there are potential conflicts that could lead to a military escalation: Taiwan and the control of the South Sea islands from China. President Xi is not like Putin and Biden. He does not speak or threaten, he just walks in the set direction. Beijing has a 50-year plan and patience in abundance, a virtue that disappeared from a West indulged in irresponsible short-termism before the comet reaches us.
Reference-www.elperiodico.com