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With the expected explosion in the number of people with loss of autonomy, the need for places in nursing homes will become “massive” by 2030


The Covid-19 pandemic in France has decimated 21,644 people living in retirement homes between 1er March and November 22. They accounted for 43% of people who died from the virus, according to the report of Public Health France on that date. This massacre has shaken the accommodation establishments for dependent elderly people (Ehpad) and tested the resistance of their caregivers, giving the image of a model at the end of its rope. The future of nursing homes is not compromised, however, far from it. France will have to open a large number of establishments in the next ten years, except to produce other forms of alternative reception on a large scale.

The “Need” of places in Ehpad will be “Massive”, provides for a study published Wednesday, December 2 by the direction of research, studies, evaluation and statistics (DREES), which depends on the Ministry of Solidarity and Health. Until then, no study had predicted such a quantitative jump: 108,000 new places will be needed in the next ten years, according to DREES, more than a doubling of the current pace of creations. France has 611,000 residents in nursing homes; they will be 719,000 in ten years. Some 4,300 places in nursing homes were opened on average each year between 2012 and 2018; An additional 9,800 will be needed each year between 2019 and 2030. In 2018, the National Union of Institutions and Private Residences for the Elderly (Synerpa) thought it had set the bar very high by assessing the needs for 62,000 additional places by 2030 …

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The Drees scenario stems from an observation: the number of people with loss of autonomy will explode: from 2.4 million in 2019, they will rise to 3 million in 2030. Those over 60 will be 21 million in 2030 – against 18 million to date. France will face its “Demographic Alpe-d’Huez” from 2030, summarizes Luc Broussy, co-founder of the think tank Matières grises. ” We have ten years to prepare for it, as the decade 2020-2030 appears, in comparison, as a stage of the plain ”, he wrote in a note published in September for this think tank devoted to the issues of aging.

To arrive at this projection, Drees makes two assumptions. First, the maintenance of the high rate of institutionalization of seniors: France is one of the European countries with the highest proportion of elderly people in nursing homes (8.8% of those aged 75 and over). Then, it relies on the stability of the loss of autonomy among the aging population, despite the increase in life expectancy.

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