Wednesday, March 3

The drama of Catalonia and Andalusia: more than 200 deaths between the two in an unfortunate day for Spain

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In November there are no press conferences comparing the situation to a war Y there are no decorated soldiers to give the daily report. The home confinements are expressly prohibited Even who requests them and the public transport is still crowded at peak times.

November is a month of not make a lot of noise, to close perimeters and bars and little else while the situation in a good part of the Peninsula is very close to spring: Basque Country he has quadrupled their cases in four weeks While Castile and Leon have their ICUs above 100%, which has forced to convert into critics beds anything that the corresponding equipment admits. In Andalusia, only today, have reported 95 deaths, just a few hours after Catalonia will notify 109.

The data for this Tuesday present a downward trend in incidence at 14 days which fits perfectly with the drop in incidence to 7 days of last week. Now, it is not a uniform descent: they continue going up the two Castiles, Murcia, Cantabria and the Basque Country. Andalusia, Catalonia and Navarra decrease a lot, they were in dire straits.

The analysis of the Covid data as of 10/11 by Guillermo Ortiz.

The short-term figures (incidence at 7 days) show a slight increase, but we should know to what extent it influences that November 2 was a holiday in almost the entire country while the 9 has only been in Madrid. It does seem that the situation in the Valencian Community is worrying. The data of the capital of Spain tend to rise for the first time in a long time but I insist that with so many holidays involved it is difficult to draw clear conclusions.

New cases diagnosed.

Although we seem to have stabilized at 17,000-18,000 daily cases, the number of admissions is still above 2,000, that is to say, one in eight detected cases requires hospitalization. This may be because there is a problem infradetección (the positivity rate seems to have stuck in the 13,5%) what the virus is priming at risk populations. It is probably a combination of both.

Health continues to give partial percentages that are not of much use. We are told that the 16.91% of total beds are occupied by cases with Covid clinic, just like him 31.70% of ICU beds. We are not told the total figure counting all the pathologies to know how far the hospital pressure reaches. How many communities are like Castilla y León without being informed about it? All this while the number of admitted continues to rise to 5% weekly -at least not anymore is 20-25% from two weeks ago– and that of critical patients grows 10% compared to last Tuesday.

All of this inevitably translates as we have seen from the beginning in an intolerable number of deceased. In its latest update, Health adds 411 new deaths although there are still many to date in the most recent days. Since On November 2, 3,088 were added to the totalAlthough some 1,100 belonged to a data update prior to May 11. The average number of deaths according to the ministry is already touching the 300 daily deaths, a figure that the autonomous communities far exceed: more than 2,500 weekly and without updating much of the data.

Daily deaths from Covid.

Daily deaths from Covid.

The The next few days will be key in the evolution of the pandemic in Spain and the decisions to be taken: if the cumulative incidence at 7 days continues to rise, the trend will probably also be up in the 14-day one next week … and remember that we are already in record numbers, more than 1 in 200 Spaniards testing positive in a diagnostic test every two weeks.

If this rise in incidence occurs despite all the measures that the different communities have been imposing, and if that rise is also beginning to be noticed in daily income, it is very difficult for the ICUs not to collapse. If the ICUs collapse, the country must be stopped.

There is no other alternative. Either that or we already started with the morgues on the skating rinks. The north of the country –Basque Country, Cantabria, Asturias, Navarra, Aragon, La Rioja, Catalonia– is in an extreme situation, as is a good part of Castile and Leon. Even in Murcia Y Andalusia the numbers of this second wave are already worse than those of the first.

It gives the feeling that everyone is looking to Madrid to act, as if they lived in a bubble. Madrid, for now, hold on. Let’s see what happens to that timid rise in incidence in the short term, but hold on. The rest of the country is in a situation that I do not know if it is really reflected as such in the media.

Staying in too long a cumulative incidence of 500 cases per 100,000 inhabitants can have catastrophic effects for the healthcare system and society usually. Trusting everything to Pfizer arriving on time with its vaccine is a risky possibility: there is no objective corroboration of the pharmaceutical company data, nor is it of course sensible to advance the distribution figures for a drug that does not exist. Rather they seem distraction maneuvers. I’m not saying we don’t need them.

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