For trusts of investment in real estate (fibers) the increase in reference rates and the level of inflation represent challenges that have directly impacted the profitability they offer.
According to the S&P/BMV Fibras Index, the performance of the last year registered a fall of 9.15%, while in the last three years its reduction is 3.24% accumulated.
Given this scenario, Carlos Gómez, an Intercam analyst, pointed out that the negative effect responds to the global pressures derived from the war between Russia and Ukraine, which has not only affected real estate trustsbut at investments usually.
In this context, Gómez highlighted that due to the increase in bank rates, the investments in fibers could lose attractiveness compared to fixed income bonds.
“The fibers they would have to pay annual dividend rates of around 10%”, explained the Intercam analyst.
“Suddenly, in fixed income, yields become higher and they are a low-risk instrument, people who often need flow generation, instead of turning to see the fibers, they will go for the bonds.”
The specialist ruled out significant reductions in the prices of the certificates; however, he noted that they will possibly be seen less investment flows. On the other hand, he indicated that since the increases in rents are related to the level of inflation, this factor can even benefit the income, as long as the economy in general is not impacted.
Fibras, a specialized investment
Salvador Daniel Kabbaz Zaga, CEO of Fiber Danhosconsidered that although inflation affects all economic segments, including real estate portfolioswhich can be a determining factor against the rise in interest rates, cannot be considered to be products of investment that compete in performance.
For the manager, they will be the least knowledgeable investors of the real estate those who decide to sell their certificates due to the increase in reference rates, since the capital gains of the trusts are defined in the long term.
He even considered that far from being seen as a reduction in profitability, the drop in the prices of the certificates of the fibers It should be seen as a buying opportunity.
“The knowledgeable, more sophisticated investor understands. It’s a investment safe, which is at a ridiculous discount level, which is why today there is an opportunity to enter at a discount rate of 40 or 50%, which will soon be reflected in the sector,” Kabbaz Zaga said.
He pointed out that in the case of Fiber Danhosinstitutional investors have maintained possession of their papers, even in times of greatest economic uncertainty.
“The big capitals have stood firm, the people who don’t understand them get scared and have left, but they leave a great opportunity,” he explained.
“It is much better to have a little piece of paper than a fiber that, having a property for rent, because if it is emptied you stop having income; the fiber It makes up a group of properties and not all of them are going to be emptied, it always allows you to have the income from the constant yield”.
New players in the industry, a pending issue
between the release of fiber storage in 2018 and the debut of Fibra Soma in February 2021, the last one to be listed on the stock market, there was a period without new trusts that have been added to the current 15 instruments, which is not perceived in the short term either.
For Kabbaz Zaga, the main reason responds to the complex economic context, coupled with the destabilizing scenario brought about by the pandemic.
However, for the manager, possibly in the medium term new trusts or, the fibers currently operating increase their investments.
“The pandemic stopped us all, a very complicated circumstance in the world, not only in Mexico,” he explained.
Since last year, two fibers specialized in the housing for rent, FibraHaus and Fibra Multifamily, had expressed their intention to go public; however, so far it is unknown if this will be in the short term.