It’s been two weeks since Russia began the military invasion of Ukraine and there is no clear perspective on how this war will evolve or who will have the ability to stop it and open a constructive dialogue for the future. Twenty days ago, however, hardly anyone believed that what is happening would happen and only Biden publicly affirmed it.
Today, without forgetting the horrible images that reach us minute by minute of the war development, concern and anguish are growing over a geographical expansion of the conflict and by the use of nuclear weapons, which could end humanity.
With the disappearance of the USSR and the Warsaw Pact in 1991, the US and Russia agreed to no enlargement of NATO, an agreement that, as we well knew and are seeing these days, was not respected: since 1999 all the countries of the former USSR that bordered Europe have been entering. In fact, and put schematically, At the end of the 20th century, the world geopolitical structure began to change.. The cold war between the capitalist and the communist world ended and a new equilibrium began where the USA and China are the great protagonists with the European Union, depending on the first, and Russia, on the second. Let us also remember that in the various war conflicts of recent decades North Americans, Europeans and Russians have participated, but not Chinese, who have chosen to make the economy and investments throughout the world the axis of their power.
Furthermore, the European Union is not well valued by the other three powers, since it adds to its capitalist economic model the attempt to promote social welfare for all citizens and the fight against social inequalities. Capitalist guidelines in the economy have become widespread, but defending welfare and social equality is only promoted here. This explains why the USA forced the entry into Europe of the former States belonging to the USSR, since the increase in its membership would make it difficult to build a federal Europe and the existence of a fourth power, which could be more autonomous in relation to American objectives. So far, the EU has not advanced and it does not seem that the current war can help it either.
The enlargement of NATO has been carried out without the vast majority of European citizens noticing and, therefore, assess if Russia took it badly. Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its support for the eastern part of present-day Ukraine, which is claiming independence, had not, until now, received the Western attention it deserved.
And, probably, beyond the great loss of human lives and the millions of people who emigrate in very harsh conditions, but who receive a good reception from the various European countries – which has never happened until now with other refugees – the economic and environmental consequences of this war are the key to a possible international pact.
The Europe’s energy dependency is extraordinary and cannot be resolved quickly. For now, the arrival of Russian gas has not been altered and there is only fear that the Russians will turn off the tap and sink our industry. the rise of Oil and gas prices in the EU have already begun to have a noticeable impact on petrol, electricity and food prices and it has also caused the closure of some industries that, in Spain, cause more unemployment and job losses at a time when the post-pandemic economic recovery was progressing. The lengthening of the war will increase these repercussions and create others. It will not be easy or quick to find how to solve them.
In the midst of this avalanche of information we also see that The US resumes relations with Venezuela and Iran to guarantee more oil supply and that the criticisms and disavowals that had been made until yesterday are useless. Again, the only thing that counts is the economy.
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Even today, NATO does not act, the US and Europe send weapons, medicine and food to Ukraine and Europe welcomes its refugees, the US and Europe apply serious economic measures and sanctions to Russia and its oligarchs, the UN overwhelmingly condemns the Russian invasion and China abstains and offers itself as a mediator but without rushing. Russia continues to threaten the use of nuclear weapons and talks between the Ukrainians and Russians have been of little use. Turkey’s mediation in the dialogue between the foreign ministers of the contenders does not seem to be of much use.
The dialogue should be immediate between the four great world powers. Otherwise, the number of deaths, the number of refugees and the economic, environmental and social degradation will grow a lot. It may also increase the risk of a third world war, maybe the last.