After a week of crazy bullish electricity prices, starting on Saturday they began to fall and, since Monday, they are below 100 euros / MWh, very high compared to the previous year but not as suffocating as in previous days.
It will not last long. “The wind forecast on Monday and Tuesday has allowed the price of the wholesale electricity market to drop,” he explains to Invertia Francisco Valverde, expert in the sector and consultant in development of the group’s energy efficiency renewables area Mint Energy.
“However, it could not rise to the levels of last week, which hit record highs, thanks to a drop in demand due to milder temperatures in the country,” he adds.
The second week of August set five consecutive records with the highest price hours, which also anticipates historical prices for the electricity bill for the following months.
The gas is still in the clouds
And while the wind blows, gas gives a little respite in international markets. According to Vertis, consulting firm specialized in the European trade of CO2 emission rights, the price of gas has dropped.
“The first-year TTF contract closed down on Thursday and Friday due to the weakness of the Asian gas market,” their analysts explain.
“One of the busiest ports in China has been closed due to new cases of Covid-19 that have caused signals and delays in other ports and have put pressure on gas demand and prices in Asia.”
Even so, its influence on the price of European gas will be slight due to the strangulation that Russia’s main gas company is doing with its pipelines to Germany. Reference prices, Dutch TTF, they keep rising through the clouds after Gazprom It only reserves 0.65 mcm / d (out of the possible 15 mcm / d) of firm transit capacity at the border point in Ukraine for September.
According to international media, throughout 2021, the Russian gas company has reserved most of the monthly firm capacity it offers, which has pushed prices up. Gazprom’s current reserved capacity in the Yamal pipeline to Germany is underutilized.
The price of CO2 remains high
Another factor that continues to influence the price of electricity is the CO2 in the EU Emission Rights Trading (ETS EU). In the last two trading days incurred losses and the US Dec21 contract stood at 57,07 euros, although it could be temporary.
According to Vertis, the reduced bidding at the auction supports the carbon price and the lack of buyers may have pushed the price of the benchmark contract down.
But southwestern Europe is expected to continue with extremely high temperatures, while more moderate temperatures are observed across continental Europe.
If so, the demand will vary depending on the territories, which will influence the final prices of electricity in each of the national markets.
25% more expensive
The electricity bill of an average consumer has increased by 25% due to the significant rise in the price of electricity so far in 2021, compared to the same period of the previous year, according to data from the Organization of Consumers and Users (OCU).
Specifically, the accumulated invoice during these first almost eight months of 2021 will be 546.25 euros, compared to the 437.85 euros that they represented last year until August. It is thus an extra cost of 108.4 euros, which is 24.8% more than in 2020.
During the first fortnight of August, the price of electricity in the wholesale market stood at 102.11 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), which is 9.6% more than last July, which was , so far the month with the most expensive electricity price in history.
This price assumes almost triple the price reached in August 2020 (36.2 euros / MWh) and is 67% higher than what had been the most expensive month of August in 2018, with a price of 64.33 euros / MWh.
So far in August, 73% of the days the price of electricity in the wholesale market has exceeded 100 euros / MWh, with those five consecutive days of maximum prices, reaching 117.29 euros on Friday the 13th.