In a recent article, he exposed a series of keys to answer a question: will it open Juanma Moreno a vox the gates of government Andalusia? In short, the answer was that the dilemma facing the Andalusian PP was different from that of past elections. The Andalusian PP It is not only the most moderate vertex of its formation, but it will mark the limits of what is expected in the PP-Vox relationship in the face of the battery of elections that will take place in 2023.
With the Andalusians, Spanish politics faces a new stage. New leadership in the PP. First electoral appointment that Vox faces after occupying a government. The reunion with Andalusia, the geographical space in which he gave the definitive shot in Spanish politics in 2018. With data from Predi, two tracks of why in 2022 Andalusia is different and that the government that is formed will respond to a new strategic logic on the right.
Vox is no longer what it was
First, Vox’s potential is limited. For four years and, above all, until the elections of the Madrid’s community The Vox party has experienced its time of expansion. Practically every electoral process in which he participated implied a new maximum for the extreme right. The Catalan elections of 2021 would be the best illustration of this upward phase: in an adverse square, those of Santiago Abascal they surpassed both PP and Ciudadanos.
Since the Madrid elections in which Isabel Díaz Ayuso clearly prevailedwith the exception of the hiatus caused by the leadership crisis and subsequent replacement of Paul Married, Vox is experiencing a strategic stagnation. He is already part of a government (that of Alfonso Fernandez Manueco in Castilla y León), having to ride the contradictions that this implies, and in turn supports an undisputed leader from Madrid among her voters. His organic boom has stopped, despite the illusion that his rise to the heat of the hemorrhage in the PP supposed. This is confirmed by his clear drop in the polls since two months ago Alberto Nunez Feijoo take the popular leadership.
With this precedent, Vox presents itself to the elections with a erratic course. According to Predi’s numbers, to the initial rise that he experienced at the beginning of the pre-campaign with the announcement of the candidacy of Macarena Olonathe party has experienced a stagnation. For a month, the party has failed to exceed expectations. The electoral debate -marked with a horizontal line in the graph below- shows no signs of having lifted it in electoral terms. East course is only comparable with that of the PSOE, which is also experiencing a tough campaign. Something, which according to Predi’s data, has reinforced the flat debate of his candidate John Swords.
Contrast with Through Andalusia, which even before the debate began to report an improvement in expectations. Exactly the same thing that has happened to the PP: the fact that Moreno has emerged unscathed from the debate, has stabilized the profits he had been reaping for a month. If there are two parties for which the debate came in particularly well, those parties were Forward Andalusia Y citizens. Regardless of the performance of their candidates, the result is predictable: small parties tend to have the most to gain in debates, a space in which they are overrepresented because they have as much voice as their larger rivals.
The plot arc of the PP in the campaign has changed
The progression of the parties both at the state level and in the Andalusian campaign gives an idea of what is the moment that the parties are experiencing. That Olona, after the debate, decide to get away for a few days refusing to give interviews to the mainstream media is a sure sign of the moment of confusion that the far-rightists live.
voxUnlike years ago, it shows signs of having lost the pulse of the message with which it wants to appeal to its voters. He no longer has PSOE Andalusian, weakened by the corruption in front, or a PP in low hours like the one in Castile and Leon: has a renewed PP and a baron with a good reputation, in large part, for his restrained pose. This situation draws a very different moment from those experienced previously. For the first time, Vox puts a bishop to compete in regional elections. Never before has it positioned one of its most mediatic leaders at the head of an electoral event. Vox knows what is at stake, in elections in which something more is needed.
Unlike in Castilla y León, the PP does not experience a resounding fall and continued that Vox takes advantage of. But neither is Ayuso’s ascending campaign that gradually cornered Vox’s expectations. It is a new situation: a moderately reinforced PP, on the rise at the national level, against Vox with a star candidate and an incoherent message now that it is as much a government party as a ‘challenger’. The balance is unstable.
It is clear that in the middle of the campaign, one week before the elections, the trajectory of the right-wing parties is more erratic than in the last electoral stakes. Without a clear trend, with relevant candidates and without electorally viable opponents from the other bloc, eyes turn to Olona and Moreno. What preferences do they have? What is the deal between the two? What does a government in coalition or alone imply for them?
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What is clear is that what happens does not depend so much on what has happened in the past, but on the calculations they make looking to the future. Predi currently assigns relatively tight probabilities between the coalition government, which dominates with a 59% probability, and the single-color government of the PP supported by Vox, with 30%. The latest campaign events and the intensity of the attacks between the two leaders of the Andalusian right will undoubtedly influence how these percentages move.
Given the demographic silence of the last week in which the publication of polls is prohibited, we recommend that you keep an eye on Predi’s daily estimates that will remain active until the very day of the elections, throwing predictions about the government and the most probable distribution of seats.