Seoul, South Korea –
North Korea is apparently moving to sell millions of rockets and artillery shells, many likely from its old stockpiles, to its Cold War ally Russia.
Russia called a US intelligence report on the purchase plan “false.” But US officials say it shows Russia’s desperation with the war in Ukraine and that Moscow could buy additional military equipment from North Korea.
The ammunition that North Korea reportedly intends to sell to Moscow are likely copies of Soviet-era weapons that can be adapted to Russian launchers. But there are still questions about the quality of the supplies and how much they could really help the Russian military.
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WHAT EXACTLY WILL NORTH KOREA SUPPLY RUSSIA?
Hit by international sanctions and export controls, Russia in August bought Iranian-made drones that US officials said had technical problems. For Russia, North Korea is probably another good option for its ammunition supply, because the North maintains a significant stockpile of projectiles, many of them Soviet-era copies.
North Korea “may represent the largest source of compatible legacy artillery ammunition outside of Russia, including domestic production facilities for further supply,” said Joseph Dempsey, a research associate for defense and military analysis at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. (IISS).
Lee Illwoo, a Korea Defense Network expert on South Korea, said both North and South Korea, divided along the world’s most fortified border for more than 70 years, have tens of millions of artillery shells each. North Korea is likely to sell older projectiles that it wants to replace with newer ones for multiple launch rocket systems or sophisticated missiles at its front-line military bases, he said.
North Korea’s increased reliance on nuclear weapons and guided missiles may also eliminate the need for many of its older unguided artillery shells that once played a prominent role, said Ankit Panda, an expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International. Peace.
But Bruce Bennett, a security expert with the California-based Rand Corporation, said most of the artillery rounds to be shipped to Russia are likely to be small arms ammunition, such as AK-47 rifles or machine guns.
“It’s not millions of artillery shells and rockets, that’s more than the likely consumption. It could be millions of small arms rounds,” Bennett said.
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HOW GOOD ARE NORTH KOREAN GUNS?
According to an IISS assessment, North Korea has some 20,000 artillery pieces in service, including multiple rocket launchers, a number Dempsey described as “significantly more than any other country in the world.”
North Korean state media have called its artillery guns “the first arm of the People’s Army and the most powerful arm in the world” that can reduce the enemy position to “a sea of flames.”
But its old artillery systems, whose ammunition is likely to be supplied to Russia, have a reputation for poor accuracy.
During North Korea’s artillery barrage of South Korea’s Yeonpyeong Island in 2010, which killed four people, Bennett said only 80 of the 300-400 weapons North Korea should have fired likely hit their target. In assessing him, Lee said that about half of the projectiles launched by North Korea ended up falling into the water before reaching the island.
“That’s a miserable artillery performance. The Russians may experience the same thing, which won’t make them very happy,” Bennett said.
Observers doubt the usefulness of North Korea’s ammunition for Russia’s campaign in Ukraine, which they say has depleted the military. There have been photos of broken Russian weapons on social media.
It is unclear how severe the ammunition shortage is in Russia. In July, a senior US defense official told reporters that Russia was launching tens of thousands of artillery shells every day and that it could not go on like this forever.
“While substantial reserves are likely to still exist, they may be increasingly breaching reserves set aside for the contingency of future broader conflict,” Dempsey said.
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NO MISSILES EXPECTED FROM NORTH KOREA
North Korea is unlikely to provide Russia with ballistic missiles it sees as crucial in its military strategies toward Washington and Seoul, said Yang Uk, an analyst at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul.
And if North Korea decides to supply missiles to Russia, it would also have to send its launch platforms because Russia does not have launchers for the North’s Scuds and other missiles. North Korea has developed a highly maneuverable nuclear-wire ballistic missile that was likely inspired by Russia’s Iskander. But the two missiles are of different sizes, according to Shin Jongwoo, a military expert at the Seoul-based Korea Defense and Security Forum.
There would be a number of items that North Korea could provide to Russia, given that the two countries share weapons systems dating back to Soviet times. But the type of ammunition North Korea would provide to Russia “is probably old and about to expire,” said Moon Seong Mook, an analyst at South Korea’s Korea National Strategy Research Institute.
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WHAT COULD NORTH KOREA GET IN RETURN?
In exchange for the weapons, North Korea is likely to want food, fuel and other materials from Russia because North Korea finds it difficult to buy such goods abroad under UN sanctions imposed over its nuclear program.
Panda said North Korea is likely to benefit in the form of cash transfers from Russia, or perhaps increased Russian leniency in not applying other sanctions on Pyongyang, including the transfer of materials needed for the growth of North Korea’s missile programs. North Korea.
According to Bennett, North Korea would be willing to be compensated with fuel. For its most advanced weapons, he could seek advanced weapons technologies from Russia, possibly including those it needs for its expected nuclear test, the first of its kind in five years, he said.