The Savings Banks Foundation (Funcas) has indicated that inflation would have peaked in March and is expected to start falling in April, although it has warned that will remain at very high levels a long the whole year.
All in all, the Foundation has not changed its forecast for the CPI for the year as a whole, which would reach a average annual rate of 6.8% in the central scenario due to the drop in oil in recent weeks. The forecast for the year-on-year rate for December is 4.4%.
The core rate, however, will rise until the end of the summer, placing its annual average at 3.5%. “This scenario depends on the evolution of energy prices,” he warned in a statement published on Wednesday.
In an alternative scenario in which the price of oil rises to 120 dollars, Funcas estimates that the average annual rate would be 7.8%. What about if He crude oil price falls to 90 dollars, the average annual rate would be 5.9%.
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According to data published this Wednesday by the National Statistics Institute (INE), the year-on-year rate of inflation rose to 9.8% in March, the highest level since 1985after a monthly increase in the CPI of 3%, while the core rate rose to 3.4%.
As Funcas pointed out, the result of the CPI for March was higher than expected in all components, especially in the most volatile: unprocessed food and energy products. “47% of the subclasses that make up the CPI registered an inflation rate above 4%compared to 36% in February”, highlighted the Foundation.