After clearing out the California primary along with Gov. Gavin Newsom, state Sen. Brian Dahle is now the latest Republican sent to the altar of figurative sacrifice: a statewide general election contest in deep blue California against a Democratic incumbent. .
Unofficial primary results show Newsom and Dahle garnered more votes than any of the other 24 gubernatorial candidates in Tuesday’s election, meaning they will go head-to-head in November. As of 9 p.m. Tuesday night, Newsom had 61% of the vote, while Dahle had 15%.
Tuesday’s results mean Newsom is almost certain to win re-election in November. It is true that 2022 is it’s expected to be a make-or-break year for Republicans, but this is still California, a liberal stronghold where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2-1. Additionally, there is precedent for California Democrats prevailing in statewide elections even when national political winds favor Republicans.
In 2010, Democratic candidate Jerry Brown more than survived that year’s national “red wave,” defeating Republican Meg Whitman by nearly 13 percentage points. California has only gotten bluer in the 12 years since then.
The only thing that seems likely to jeopardize Newsom’s re-election chances would be a scandal (or scandals) in the coming months. And we’re not talking about a French Laundry-type scandal, we’re talking about a momentous scandal that this man should never hold public office in his lifetime again. That’s how safe Newsom is against a Republican.
Things could possibly have been different if independent candidate Michael Shellenberger had passed the primary. Some analysts thought that the popular Berkeley author had at least a semblance of a chance to unseat Newsom in November, but finished with just 3% of the vote on Tuesday night.
Newsom and his team clearly thought a primary win by Dahle, a farmer and small business owner from Bieber, would give the governor the best chance of securing a second term. In an announcement published last month, which came two days after a leaked Supreme Court draft opinion showed the body plans to overturn Roe v. Wade, Newsom took aim at Dahle for his stance on abortion.
“With reproductive freedom under attack, who can California women count on to stand up for our rights?” says the ad’s narrator. “GOP-backed Senator Brian Dahle supports Donald Trump. Dahle wants to roll back abortion rights by punishing women and doctors.”
The announcement was a clear attempt by Newsom to boost Dahle’s name recognition among voters in a bid to help him clear the packed primary field. A group supporting Democratic Attorney General Rob Bonta in his statewide race did something similar.
At the time, it wasn’t clear whether Newsom’s tactic would help him get the result he wanted, but Tuesday’s results show it probably did. Regardless of how Dahle finished second in this year’s primary, Newsom is now up for re-election in November.
Reference-www.sfgate.com