The Omicron COVID-19 variant spreads like wildfire and Ontario scientists smell like smoke. The government and the people must act faster, they say, or the province will catch fire, creating a cause for another shutdown.
Omicron is so contagious, Dr. David Juurlink, chief of clinical pharmacology and toxicology at Sunnybrook Health Sciences Center, told the Star that he believes everyone will eventually become infected with it.
“I hope to contract this variant in the next few months,” he said, despite being triple vaccinated.
Dr. Peter Juni, Scientific Director of the Ontario COVID-19 Scientific Advisory Board, said he believes that people without boosters will become infected. And even with a booster, infection is still quite possible.
“If he has only received two doses, or one dose, or he is not vaccinated, he (Omicron) will receive it,” he said.
“If you don’t have really high antibodies, due to a recent infection or a recent third dose, you will get infected. Infections will even occur in people with three doses. If the third dose is fresh, you will have relatively good protection, something like 75 percent (for Omicron) compared to 93 percent for Alpha. And that’s a very preliminary number, taken from very little data. “
By the end of the year, according to an expertOntario could see 10,000 Omicron infections per day, more than double the current record for daily cases set at the crest of the third wave in April.
This exponential growth in transmission could push hospital capacity beyond the limit. And if enough healthcare workers get sick at the same time, hospitals may not be able to provide care.
“Here’s a really scary scenario: healthcare workers by the thousands are found to be infected with Omicron and have to stay away from work in large numbers while in quarantine,” Juurlink said.
“It would be a nightmare. It would have a huge impact on the care provided in hospitals, particularly in homes for the elderly.”
Omicron is unprecedented, a mutant much more resistant to vaccination than its ancestors. It is now believed that two doses of a COVID vaccine, or the antibodies from a previous COVID infection, do little to prevent its transmission. A third dose offers better protection, although not complete, but most will not be eligible for another injection until early January.
The only ray of hope is that Omicron has yet to be observed to be more lethal or create more health complications than other variants. And experts believe that partial or full vaccination largely prevents dangerous symptoms from developing after infection.
Bradly Wouters, executive vice president for science and research at University Health Network in Toronto, said the third doses should arrive before January.
“We have been too slow on this,” he said. “In the summer there were days when we distributed 250,000 (vaccine doses) a day. It’s possible to do that again, but it would take the will to do it, to set up mass vax clinics and find people to run them. “
The province needs faster reflexes, Wouters said, because Omicron is like lightning. He and other experts have observed that the number of Omicron cases is now doubling roughly every three days.
About 15 percent of people currently infected with COVID in Ontario are ill with the Omicron strain. At this rate, Omicron will account for 100% of new cases in the GTA by Christmas Day. according to Jim Woodgett, director of research at the Lunenfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute in Toronto.
“It won’t take long for (Omicron) to completely outperform Delta and create very, very high numbers,” Wouters said. “Unless we take drastic public health measures to control the spread, there is no reason to think that we will not see many more people infected.”
The drastic measures do not mean another lockdown, Wouters said. Rather, that would be the result if they are not taken.
“Our society is not ready for another blockade,” he said. “Nobody wants that. It is a very powerful tool to use if you have no other options. This time we could be smarter about it. But the government waits until January, it may find itself in a position where it has no other option. “
Being smarter means getting third doses out as quickly as possible, asking the public to limit meetings, and subsidizing rapid COVID tests to the point where they are ubiquitous, with every household having a drawer full so their members can get tested before they go. get out.
“Rapid tests have been vastly underutilized,” Wouters said. “In most of Europe, you can pick them up at a pharmacy for a dollar. People fill their bathrooms with them. “(Rapid tests are available at Toronto pharmacies for $ 30- $ 40.)
Rapid test prices are free or inexpensive throughout Europe and parts of the US and Canada because governments bear the cost. Saskatchewan offers free take-home rapid tests to the public and Nova Scotia delivers test kits to residents in emerging locations.
If the Ontario government started doing the same and people in the province started testing themselves regularly before going to work or meetings, Wouters said the threat from Omicron would diminish.
Still, taking reinforcement shots quickly is the best defense against the variant. Canada is one of the lucky countries with the capacity to do that. For Wouters, this highlights global vaccine inequality, which is prolonging the pandemic. Mutations like Omicron arise from developing countries without sufficient vaccine infrastructure. They spread from there to the entire world in a few weeks.
“This variant likely came from a part of the world that was under-vaccinated,” he said. “This is a global problem: it is necessary to vaccinate the world to protect everyone. We need a more concerted effort to expand the manufacture of and access to vaccines in developing countries. We can stop the spread in Canada, but this virus will not go away if we cannot control it globally. “
Reference-www.thestar.com