AP Top 25 Reality Check: Pour caution into that optimism

Low expectations rarely disappoint.

That’s not to say your favorite team doesn’t live up to the promise that comes with getting a spot on The Associated Press Preseason Top 25 College Football Poll presented by Regions Bank that was published on Monday.

But the numbers suggest it’s best to sprinkle a fair amount of caution on that optimism as it gears up for the 2022 season.

The Lear year was especially volatile for the Top 25, with 14 teams starting the season ranked and finishing unranked. From 2010 to 2020, on average, 9.5 teams that appeared in the preseason Top 25 finished unranked, about 38% of the picks. During that time, the most was 12 in 2010.

In last year’s preseason top 10, three teams (Texas A&M, Iowa State and North Carolina) failed to make it to the final poll. That’s double the average (1.5) from 2010-2020.

It’s time to temper expectations for the preseason Top 25 this season, except for Alabama.

No. 1 Alabama (13-2 last season)

Opener: vs. Utah State, Sept. 3.

Reality check: The safest bet in sports is the Crimson Tide, which only missed the tiebreaker once. Alabama hasn’t finished outside the top 10 since 2007, coach Nick Saban’s first season. There’s no reason to think it’s happening this season.

No. 2 Ohio State (11-2)

Opening: vs. No. 5 Notre Dame, September 3.

Reality check: The Buckeyes hired former Oklahoma State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles to fix a defense that was too exposed against their best opponents. However, QB CJ Stroud, WR Jaxson Smith-Njigba and a potent offense likely make Ohio State fail-proof.

No. 3 Georgia (14-1)

Opening: vs. No. 11 Oregon at Atlanta, Sept. 3.

Reality check: Most of last season’s all-time great defense is now in the NFL. The Bulldogs are too talented to take a big step back, but assuming Alabama-level consistency from any team is too much to ask.

No. 4 Clemson (10-3)

Opener: vs. Georgia Tech in Atlanta, Sept. 5.

Reality check: After their first non-ACC championship season in seven years, the Tigers are perhaps the most intriguing team in the country. Clemson has two new coordinators and a former five-star quarterback (DJ Uiagalelei) trying to bounce back from a disconcertingly poor season. Voters are leaning toward last season being a problem for Dabo Swinney’s team and not the start of a trend.

No. 5 Notre Dame (11-2)

Opener: At No. 2 Ohio State, Sept. 3.

Reality check: The Fighting Irish have set high standards with five straight 10-win seasons, but trainer Marcus Freeman’s first season as Brian Kelly’s replacement has a lot of transition-year vibes.

No. 6 Texas A&M (8-4)

Opener: vs. Sam Houston, Sept. 3.

Reality check: The Aggies won the offseason with the No. 1 recruiting class and coach Jimbo Fisher taking on his former boss, Saban. They’re also a team that relies heavily on sophomores and those five-star freshmen and one without an established starting quarterback or big-play receivers.

No. 7 Utah (10-4)

Opening: in Florida, September 3.

Reality check: The Utes are coming off their first Pac-12 title and Rose Bowl appearance, and they have enough pieces to do it again. But repeating a magical season is tough for the vast majority of shows that don’t regularly sign top 10 recruiting classes.

No. 8 Michigan (12-2)

Opening: against the state of Colorado, September 3.

Reality check: The Wolverines broke through for coach Jim Harbaugh with a Big Ten title and a win over Ohio State in 2021. Now, with two new coordinators and a defense replacing three first-round picks, it seems unlikely. let it happen again. An experienced offense and accommodating schedule give Michigan a high ground.

No. 9 Oklahoma (11-2)

Opening: vs. UTEP, September 3.

Reality check: New coach (Brent Venables), new quarterback (Dillon Gabriel) and more uncertainty in Norman than there has been in years. The Sooners have been one of the most reliable teams in the country for two decades, finishing unranked just twice. But turnover often comes with volatility.

No. 10 Baylor (12-2)

Opener: vs. Albany, Sept. 3.

Reality check: Another of 2021’s surprise emerging teams, the defending Big 12 champions hope to keep pace with strong line play. Still, the Big 12 is about winning close games and the difference between playing for the title and finishing fourth is small.

No. 11 Oregon (10-4)

Opening: vs. No. 3 Georgia at Atlanta, Sept. 3.

Reality check: Another highly rated team with a new coach and quarterback. Former Georgia DC Dan Lanning inherits the most talented roster in the Pac-12. Transfer Bo Nix will try to bring stability to the quarterback position, which wasn’t really his thing at Auburn.

No. 12 Oklahoma State (12-2)

Opening: vs. Central Michigan, September 1.

Reality check: The Cowboys, a super-senior-driven team, especially on defense, in 2022, will need to lean heavily on their seasoned offense. QB Spencer Sanders has had a long career full of peaks and valleys.

No. 13 North Carolina State (9-3)

Opening: in East Carolina, September 3.

Reality Check: The Wolfpack enters one of the most anticipated seasons for the show in recent history, with a charged defense and a star quarterback in Devin Leary. This is also a show that has a double-digit win season, ever.

No. 14 USC (5-7)

Opening: vs. Rice, September 3.

Reality check: Star power at USC hasn’t been this bright in a long time with coach Lincoln Riley, QB Caleb Williams and WR Jordan Addison providing hope for immediate change. But the game is still about blocking and taking down, and there are many questions about the Trojans’ ability to do it well.

No. 15 Michigan State (11-2)

Opener: vs. Western Michigan, Sept. 2.

Reality check: Coach Mel Tucker took advantage of the Spartans’ surprising rise last year in a huge contract and the heightened expectations that come with it. Will the regression come for the Spartans in 2022?

No. 16 Miami (7-5)

Opener: vs. Bethune-Cookman, Sept. 4.

Reality Check: The U. brought back local hero Mario Cristóbal to help build the show back to its powerful past. He has a pro prospect in QB Tyler Van Dyke to work with, but that’s a lot of optimism for a team that has only finished ranked once in the past four seasons.

No. 17 Pitt (11-3)

Opening: vs. West Virginia, September 1.

Reality check: Coming off an ACC title, the Panthers are hoping USC transfer Kedon Slovis can replicate Kenny Pickett’s stellar 2021. He will have to do it without the late Jordan Addison. Pitt hasn’t finished consecutive seasons ranked since 1983.

No. 18 Wisconsin (9-4)

Opener: v. State of Illinois, Sept. 3.

Reality check: In three of the last four seasons, the Badgers started the season ranked and finished unranked. The formula of star running back (Braelon Allen) and tough defense seems to be in his place again, but can quarterback Graham Mertz finally find his frontline form?

No. 19 Arkansas (9-4)

Opening: vs. No. 23 Cincinnati, September 3.

Reality check: Life in the SEC West is tough. The Razorbacks were outstanding last year, but things can change quickly. Especially against a schedule that also includes Cincinnati and No. 25 BYU with a rebuilt defense.

No. 20 Kentucky (10-3)

Opening: in Miami (Ohio), September 3.

Reality check: Kentucky has been successful at intimidating teams from the start. Rotation on both lines could make things difficult this season, even as quarterback Will Levis’ NFL prospect status rises. The last time the Wildcats finished ranked in consecutive seasons: 1977.

No. 21 Mississippi (10-3)

Opening: against Troy, September 3.

Reality check: After the first 10-win regular season in school history, Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin dipped back into the transfer portal to rebuild his offense with QB Jaxson Dart, RB Zach Evans and OT Mason Brooks. Do the pieces come back together for the Portal King?

No. 22 Wake Forest (11-3)

Opening: vs. VMI, September 1 September.

Reality check: The Demon Deacons have 13 starters returning from one of the best teams in school history. But as good as Wake was last year, the defense fell apart late and now the Deacs will have to settle for a indefinite period without QB Sam Hartman.

No. 23 Cincinnati (13-1)

Opening: at No. 19 Arkansas, September 3.

Reality check: Any remaining doubts about last year’s Bearcats were buried on NFL draft night. Cincinnati had nine players selected, including five in the top 100. That’s a mountain of difference marks for any program not named Alabama to replace.

No. 24 Houston (12-2)

Opening: at UTSA, September 3.

Reality check: The Cougars fulfilled the promise of signing Dana Holgorsen last year by playing for the American Athletic Conference title and are poised to be this season’s G5 King. They also face a tough opening schedule that includes Texas Tech, and they have to replace two great playmakers in DB Marcus Jones and DL Logan Hall.

No. 25 BYU (10-3)

Opening: at USF, September 3.

Reality check: The Cougars won 10 games with a young team last year, which bodes well for this season. But oh that schedule. BYU’s last season as an independent before joining the Big 12 includes games against No. 10 Baylor, No. 11 Oregon, No. 5 Notre Dame, No. 19 Arkansas, Boise State and Stanford.

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Follow Ralph D. Russo on https://twitter.com/ralphDrussoAP and listen in http://www.appodcasts.com

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