Last Sunday, June 5, elections were held in Mexico in six states and although together they represented only 12% of the electoral roll, their interest was focused on the progress of Morena and the result of the alliances, let’s see some results.
1.- Morena wins four states and the alliance wins two, these results were the budgeted ones although there were two states that generated interest, Durango where it was thought more closed and Tamaulipas where it was thought more open, but the winners were the alliance and Morena respectively as have been present since the campaign began.
2.- Morena will go from 16 governed states to 20, and if we add to these states with San Luis Potosí and Morelos from allied parties, we would have a president “close” to 22 states. No party has had this number since 1999 when the PRI was on its way out, which is not the case with Morena.
3.- In the states that the president will control, 20, 59% of the electoral roll and 60% of the 300 districts accumulate, that is, he is gaining significant territorial control towards the 2024 election.
4.- Who wins and who loses? As you can see, Morena and the president are winners, there is no doubt about this; The INE also wins because it organized, withstood criticism, communicated well, did the PREPs and quick counts perfectly; losers? The PRI, the PAN and the alliance, which win two states but lose power. And Citizen Movement (MC)? He shows weakness, his votes would not have served to win any state and he does not place second in a single one of them; to fight it requires popular candidates because it does not have structures.
5.- Miscellaneous: There was a successful trial of an electronic ballot box in Aguascalientes, a consultation was carried out with the election in Quintana Roo, also with success; two second-chance candidates won (Oaxaca and Durango); three licensed senators will now be governors (Oaxaca, Hidalgo and Tamaulipas); The two winning women built their careers at the local level as municipal presidents (Aguascalientes and Quintana Roo), with them there will be nine women governing, two years ago there were only two. Shares are generally down.
Forward
a.- What will happen to alliances? In my opinion, the PAN-PRI-PRD alliance, where today the strong party seems to be the PAN, will continue until 2024. I don’t know if it will be achieved in the two states of 2023, but I think it is inevitable that they come together for the presidential election, they alone are very weak and do not yet present a candidacy that gives them strength, together they grow and can fight back. In the case of MC, I do not see him allying himself in 2023, but he does enter into talks for 2024, where he will demand to join the candidate, since he has the one who seems to have the most power to grow, Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas.
b.- Will Morena become a hegemonic party or will it lose strength without López Obrador? It is difficult to know, the historical reference would be the maxima created by Calles in the 30’s when he founded a party and appointed presidents as he pleased (until Cárdenas banished him); in that case Calles created institutions and a political system that worked, his party, with name changes, became hegemonic without depending on its president, it was a party of structures that for decades had no opposition, until now we have not seen that path but it is still early to know, for now the triumphs of 2018-2022 are largely attributed to the popularity and narrative of Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
President of Consulta-Mitofsky
Numbers, Opinion and Politics
President of Consulta-Mitofsky, Actuary and Mathematician from UNAM, with master’s degrees in Statistics and Actuary from the Inter-American Center for Social Security Studies, and Diplomas in Political Analysis, Senior Business Management and Marketing, among others. He teaches Statistics, Mathematics and political marketing courses in various countries, and is a permanent lecturer on topics related to research, politics and the media.