The victory of Isabel Diaz Ayuso in the early elections of the Community of Madrid it could be even higher than predicted by the SocioMétrica survey for EL ESPAÑOL. According to the survey carried out by Gad-3 for Telemadrid, the PP list, led by the current president, would have achieved the 43.7% of the votes, which would boost her up to 62-65 seats. Thus, the popular leader would double her 2019 results in popular support – she then achieved 22.2% – and, long, in deputies – she reached 30-.
This poll does foresee that the PSOE of Angel Gabilondo it would have managed to save the primacy of the left in the region. Despite the collapse of the Socialists, which fell from 27.3% to a possible 18,4%, Gabilondo would manage to be above Mónica García. THE PSOE would have between 25 and 28 seats (compared to 37 two years ago), while More Madrid would reach 21-24 deputies.
The list regionalist Therefore, it would have risen between one and four seats (it obtained 20) since the elections of 28-M. But above all, it would have established itself as the alternative force of the left, with a 16.1% of popular support, just two points behind the PSOE and well ahead of United We Can.
And is that the effect of Pablo Iglesias it has only served to prop up their training within the Assembly. United We could have achieved the 7.9% of the votes, which would translate into a fork of 10-11 deputies.
When on March 14, the second vice president of the Government announced that he was leaving the Council of Ministers, he offered to “lead a left-wing government in Madrid”, but basically, he was descending to the regional arena to prevent the disappearance of the purple in his fief of birth. The list, headed by Isa Serra, risked not passing the barrier that marks the electoral law to obtain representation, of 5%.
The goal of survival seems achieved, but not that of strengthen the left in a fiefdom in which the PP has been ruling for 26 years uninterruptedly. On the contrary, despite the rise in participation – which Iglesias considered key for what he himself called “surprising” -, between PSOE, Más Madrid and Unidas Podemos would achieve 42.4% of popular support, far from 47.6% two years ago.
Vox would be the crutch of support for the PP, but with such a great triumph, probably from outside the Government. The 9,2% popular support for Rocío Monastery would translate into 12-14 seats.
Finally, Ciudadanos would disappear from the Assembly, in the biggest disaster known for decades in the region. The party now led by Edmundo bal, which formed the coalition government with Ignacio Aguado as vice president of Díaz Ayuso until two months ago, they would lose all their representation (they had 26 deputies) and falling from 19.4% to 3.2% of the votes.