Monday, May 10

2021, the year I of Sánchez’s regime change … on a battlefield prepared by Iglesias

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In a divided government, it is the president who commands. And, as in the American series on the White House, in which there are not even casting to incarnate the Secretaries of Employment or Transportation, it does not matter what the ministries prepare. It is the Moncloa team that not only draws up the strategy, but also executes it.

That has understood Pablo Iglesias.

When United We Can negotiated between April and September 2019 the coalition that never was and that led to the electoral repetition, the official effort was “to avoid two governments.” Iglesias did not want purple ministers subordinate to the Socialists, and hence reject the wallets that Pedro Sánchez offered him, almost all secretaries of state and general directorates detached from pre-existing departments in the hands of the PSOE.

But the purple leader is chameleon, and he adapts. According to his environment, the chief strategist of Podemos, Juanma del Olmo, understand that politics is “a network of communicative frameworks” on which to work to “transform society”.

And if he was able to make his clients swallow a sock turn as radical as that of campaigning “Constitution in hand” after having hatched only three years before on the basis of wanting to “blow up the lock of 78” … a Once the wallets were seized, Iglesias took advantage of the idea, assuming the strategy of two governments as his own. And, as in the mus, he upped the ante with the tactic of the two coalitions.

The two coalitions

Every monday, at Matins -before the Socialist leaders-, the second vice president marks his territory high … the one that has started three or four days before, in his lunches hand in hand with Sánchez on Thursdays or Fridays. And when there is conflict, he reminds Sánchez that if the president is in charge, it is because the vice president wants, with his 35 deputies under his arm.

… which are now 53, because he has added the 18 from Esquerra (13) and Bildu (5).

In 2021, Spain has Budgets for the first time in four years. It will be Year I after the pandemic – if vaccines work – and, above all, Year I of regime change.

The spending ceiling has gone up more than 50%, because the European Union has raised the barriers, Maria Jesus Montero has removed fiscal rules, and the coronavirus calls for it.

There is a Minimum Vital Income, which United We Can and its new best friends de Esquerra and Bildu plowed through little by little to convert it into universal income.

Evictions, supply cuts … and even layoffs were eliminated during the worst months of the pandemic.

“Who is going to dare to remove so much subsidy and subsidy, so many payments and benefits?”, Asked a deputy popular the last day before adjourning the sessions for Christmas. “What they are doing is preparing the self-fulfilling prophecy”.

But if the PP believe that – once again – they will inherit a bankrupt country, the day they arrive in Moncloa, at United We Can do not work for that. But so that it never happens again – as far as possible – that the rights rule.

The purples want that the prophecy is self-fulfilling in a loop: “The PSOE has liberal tendencies that, thankfully, we compensate,” they explain every time the purple leaders have occasion.

“And there has been nothing better than Calviño’s efforts to preserve Citizens”, they add, “to show that those that the right wing call ‘the coup plotters and those of ETA’ are the best way for this government to carry out leftist policies” .

Are politics facts?

Meanwhile, in the building where Calviño works, another maxim reigns, that “politics are facts.” And that is what counts: Iglesias did not paint anything in the merger of Bankia and CaixaBank; the Budgets do not include their demands “extemporaneous” of massive increase of taxes; and evictions are prohibited but banks and large funds are compensated for mortgages and unpaid rents.

On the podemita side they concede that, and remember that they were born “as an instrument of change”, so they continue to adapt to the environment: on the one hand, in action, they forget the objective of “war” and carry out their battles; and on the other, in the message, they apply the double coalition tactic, and they continue to ensure that everything that sounds like the PSOE -at least, compared to them- has echoes of “prudence, stability, coherence” … that is to say , for his public, of “old regime of 78”.

And every time that Sánchez needs to calm the waters in the Council of Ministers, he is presented in the headlines “giving in” to the radical Iglesias. That is to say, this decree here, or this one there, “is not a matter of luck, but of stubbornness” and that without United We can there would be no social spending and “the usual” would win.


A government always blurs the party that supports it. And more if they are two different formations. Enough work involves handling the messages of the ministers and parliamentary groups to keep the PSOE and Podemos alive in the media, whose logos have become mere stamps on paper – amendments, manifests or bills – to certify policies.

Since its constitution, now a year ago, the Government has two parts; one with more weight than the other, in number of ministers and quality of ministries. But with the same ambition to transcend in the “great modernizing transformation” o la “new democratizing transition” – according to the owner of the quotation marks is the socialist president or the purple vice president – that “Spain needs”.

Both want to transcend because both fear the partner and rival. The PSOE, to a populist, ambitious and media that more than leading, he has a troop of speakers hanging from him, cut off by his own pattern. And that it has a capacity for mass mobilization in the streets that no one had worked in the last two decades -since the fall of Aznar after the Iraq war and the attacks of 11-M-. In addition to media attention -for better and for worse- that make it occupy more relative space on the covers than that indicated by its true electoral weight.

And United We, of course, seeks to transcend Moncloa’s power machinery. The purple ones are aware that, at least in the previous experiences of coalition -at the local and regional level-, the smallest formation of the alliance is the one that always loses. The government leader always personalizes the triumphs, because he sets the agenda, and the instability is attributable -and therefore, attributed- to the efforts of the little one to get his head off. That is part of the mission of Ivan Redondo from the office of the president’s chief of staff.

Transcending means capitalizing on successes. Or what the left – for whose personification the socialist leader and the purple compete – understands by such. And the first year of the coalition government has allied with the coronavirus, Trump, China, Abascal, the Brexi and the Bolsonaros who help cover up Maduro’s crimes and tricks to generate the perfect storm for Iglesias and his “regime change.”

The global epidemic is sinking economies and has forced a revision of the liberalism with which the European Union responded to the previous – and very recent – great crisis. Brussels does not know how to deal with Boris Johnson and Podemos is already studying how to recover its pre-pandemic ideas to capitalize on the discontent of farmers who will not be able to export to the islands.

There are “communists in government” and a powerful extreme right in Congress for the first time since before the war, and the understanding on the part of that radical left that a double coalition is convenient for it: the government to send today and the parliamentary with the Catalan and Basque separatists to secure more mandates.


That is why, from the very promise of the positions, Iglesias began a race to differentiate himself every day. A Stakhanovist effort to pierce the rock and install the idea that “a government advances on the basis of pressure.” And taking into account that these were going to reach the PSOE “from the powerful”, it would be necessary for “the groups that have brought us here”, that is, to the blue bank, “do not abandon us, demand us, correct us and keep pressing us “.

the reality is that, as the months go by – less than expected, due to the pandemic – “there is a confrontation” between the social and economic ministries, which leads Nadia Calvin. And, as is repeated in the leaks of Iglesias, “once again, United We have had to reach the government so that …”

This battle for now the forces of the PSOE have lost it. The Socialists have not succeeded in the joint Executive year -or in the two and a half since they occupied Moncloa- to get rid of the role of establishment in which the purple propaganda machinery places them.

And we are before the whiting that bites its tail. Because the closer the president – tenant to copying the concepts and dialectical frameworks of United We Can – approaches the successful speech of his partner, the more two secondary effects are exacerbated: on the one hand, that Iglesias goes more radically to the left; and on the other, that more pulls the emergency brake Vice President Calviño.

Two complementary and beneficial consequences for the vice president, who plays with an advantage. Because -although it is the weak part- it dominates the message, manages the communicative frameworks and, consequently, his is the battlefield.

That the PSOE, 140 years after its foundation, is overshadowed by the omnipresence of Sánchez, supposes a decapitalization on the left. That Podemos, which has not turned seven since its opening ceremony at the Teatro del Barrio, is nothing without Iglesias, it is nothing more than the fulfillment of its destiny of “instrumental party”.

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