According to calculations by the Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) in Cologne, the November lockdown will have dramatic consequences for the economy and jobs. “The lockdown light that we have now until the end of November is expected to reduce GDP by one percentage point,” said IW Director Michael Hüther of “Bild am Sonntag”. According to this, around 591,000 people will lose their jobs this year, and another 15,000 people next year – “provided the lockdown comes to an end as announced.”
If the lockdown lasts longer, GDP could fall by two percentage points, Hüther added. “Then we can count on 180,000 additional unemployed for next year.” In addition, the repeated switching off and on causes structural damage to large parts of an economy. “The resulting losses would have to be added.”
Lockdown cost almost 20 billion euros
In a calculation for “Welt am Sonntag”, the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) put the cost of the lockdown at around 19.3 billion euros. With losses of 5.8 billion euros, catering and hotels are hardest hit. This is followed by industry with a minus of 5.2 billion euros.
In the coming year, the DIW expects a clear recovery: “We assume that the gross domestic product will be able to increase significantly again in 2021 – but only if the second wave of infections can be stopped soon,” says DIW President Marcel Fratzscher.
Israel is slowly rolling back restrictions
In Israel, meanwhile, the second lockdown is slowly ending: One and a half months after it began, further easing came into force on Sunday. At the beginning of the Israeli working week, elementary schools reopened to around half a million first to fourth grade students. The children must wear a mask throughout the class and during the breaks.
Holiday apartments as well as hairdressing and cosmetic salons can be reopened, and driving lessons are also allowed again. Up to ten people can gather in houses of prayer and up to 20. Outside there was bitterness among street vendors because their shops are not expected to open for a week.
After a mild course at the beginning of the pandemic, the number of corona infections in Israel rose dramatically after the first easing in May – similar to the current situation in Europe. A second nationwide lockdown, which came into force on September 18, then caused the numbers to drop significantly again. This time, the easing should be implemented more carefully so that the number of infections does not soar again.
Even after the first easing in Israel two weeks ago, the number of infections continues to fall. The Ministry of Health recorded 218 new cases on Sunday. At the height of the Corona crisis in Israel a month ago, it was more than 9,000 a day.