- Electoral College could favor Trump in upcoming elections
- The presidential election in the United States does not result from the direct vote of the citizens
- Four years ago, Trump received 3.2 million fewer votes than his Democratic rival and won the election.
Electoral College could favor Trump in upcoming elections. Thousands of computer drills conducted at Columbia University indicate a slight pro-Donald Trump bias for the Electoral College system.
This would be to a lesser degree than in 2016, according to an article published this Monday Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).
The presidential election in the United States does not result from the direct vote of the citizens, but is from the Electoral College, with 538 members, distributed in proportion to the population of each state.
This vote decides the victory of one of the two candidates, in this case Donad Trump and Democrat Joe Biden.
Four years ago, although Trump received 3.2 million fewer votes than his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, the Republican candidate won the victory by grabbing more votes in the Electoral College.
Robert Erikson, a professor of political science, and Karl Sigman, a professor of industrial engineering at the Columbia University School of Engineering (New York), examined how the Electoral College results are conditioned by the way the states voted in previous elections.
The authors examined election results since 1980 and, after running thousands of simulations, concluded that, if the popular vote is very even, the odds of victory in the Electoral College tilt in favor of Trump and to the detriment of Democrat Joe Biden.
The authors argue that “the tipping point between a likely Democratic or Republican Electoral College victory is not a 50-50 popular vote, but rather in the range of 51% Democratic and 49% Republican.”
Filed Under: Electoral College Favor Trump