Worse and worse: the conclusions of the UN climate report


The report by UN climate experts (IPCC) published on Monday paints an endless picture of the suffering endured by humanity hit by the impacts of global warming for which it is not sufficiently prepared.

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Here are the main elements of the IPCC’s first assessment of the impacts and adaptation to climate change in seven years.

Here and now

The devastating consequences of climate change, long seen as a dash on the horizon, have now become a reality in every corner of the planet, with 3.3 to 3.6 billion people already “very vulnerable”, that is almost half of humanity.

Warming of about +1.1°C on average since pre-industrial times has already contributed to species decline and extinction, increased mosquito-borne diseases, more deaths from heat and drought, to a loss of agricultural and fisheries crops.

People’s health, physical and mental, is also affected.

“The increase in meteorological and climatic extremes has led to irreversible impacts” on human societies and nature, concludes the IPCC.

But this is only the beginning and the impacts on nature and humans will increase: possible extinction of 3 to 14% of terrestrial species at +1.5°C, “billions” of additional people exposed to dengue fever, or in general, a “significant increase in disease and premature death”.

Notice of submergence

Regardless of the rate of greenhouse gas emissions, a billion people could live by 2050 in coastal areas at risk, as rising sea levels heighten the impact of storms and flooding marines.

The population at risk of sea flooding will double if the ocean rises 75cm, a figure broadly consistent with projections for 2100. Today, around 900 million people live less than 10m above sea level. from sea level.

By 2100, the value of infrastructure and other assets installed in these areas prone to exceptional (“one in 100 years”) floods will be around $10 trillion in a moderate emissions scenario.

Temporarily exceed +1.5°C

The first part of the IPCC report on the physics of the climate in August had estimated that it would be possible, in the event of a probable overrun of +1.5°C, the most ambitious objective of the Paris agreement, to then return under this threshold by the end of the century.

But this even temporary overshoot, which climatologists call “overshoot”, would not go without repercussions.

Anything over +1.5° “would lead to irreversible impacts” on key ecosystems like coral reefs, mountain glaciers and ice caps.

“The risk of severe impacts increases with each additional fraction of warming,” temporary exceedance or not, according to the report.

Adapt or die

The previous report of 2007 did not expand on the issue of adaptation, ie the measures taken to limit or prepare for the impacts of global warming. This question is now central.

In general, the IPCC warns that the world is not ready, warming is going faster than measures to adapt to the consequences. Furthermore, “at the current rate of adaptation planning and implementation, the gap between what is needed and what is done will continue to grow”.

Rediscovery of old varieties of more resistant agricultural crops, restoration of mangroves or construction of dykes, planting trees in cities to create cooled corridors or air conditioning: the exploration of possibilities is urgent. But without guarantee of result.

“Mal-adaptation”

The IPCC thus warns against the dangers of measures which can be totally counterproductive, when the world no longer has any margin for error.

“There is growing evidence of maladaptation across many sectors and regions.”

For example, building a dyke to protect against marine flooding caused by rising sea levels can lead to the development of the area in question, which is the most at risk, creating an erroneous sense of security.

Waterfall and tipping points

The report highlights some irreversible and potentially catastrophic changes to the climate system, called “tipping points,” that can be triggered at certain levels of warming.

This relates in particular to the melting of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets which contain enough icy water to raise the oceans by 13m.

In the shorter term, certain regions — northeast Brazil, Southeast Asia, the Mediterranean, central China — and the coasts almost everywhere could be hit by multiple disasters at the same time: drought, heat wave, cyclone , fires, floods.

Science is just beginning to look at the impacts of these cascading impacts.

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Reference-www.journaldemontreal.com

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