World trade grew 0.8% monthly in August

World trade volume increased 0.8% in August 2021, compared to July, when it registered a 1.4% drop, reported the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB).

Despite the positive monthly growth figure, the momentum of world trade remains negative for the second month in a row and is down 0.9 percent.

Momentum calculates growth in world trade volume over the past three months compared to the previous three months.

The CBP explained that the result of this last indicator is mainly due to the negative trend in China’s trade since the second quarter of the current year.

This decline follows a period of strong recovery after the deep drop in global goods trade when the Covid-19 crisis broke out.

At the beginning of this month, the World Trade Organization (WTO) projected that the volume of world merchandise trade will increase at a year-on-year rate of 10.8% in 2021, updating this estimate from the 8.0% released in March.

From a WTO perspective, growth should moderate as merchandise trade approaches its long-term pre-pandemic trend.

For now, trade in goods and services continued to expand in the second quarter, returning to the levels observed before the start of the public health emergency.

However, major bottlenecks emerged on the supply side, caused in part by the speed of the recovery itself, mainly related to semiconductor shortages and logistics and transportation problems.

For its part, the Bank of Italy estimated that world trade will increase 11.2% in 2021, due to a considerable slowdown in the second half of the year; He added that downside risks remain, mainly linked to the course of the pandemic, which could lead to further disruptions in global supply chains.

Last August, at a month-on-month rate and measured in volume, imports to China rose 2.7%, the Euro Zone increased 1.6% and the United States grew 1.3 percent. In contrast, inbound shipments to Latin America decreased 2.1 percent.

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