The United States has a key stake in France’s presidential election on Sunday, when voters in one of America’s oldest allies will choose between incumbent President Emmanuel Macron and his far-right opponent Marine Le Pen.
The vote is seen as a referendum on the close ties Macron has established between France and the rest of Western Europe and the United States and Le Pen’s populist push for a more independent France.
Le Pen is seen as close to Russian President Vladimir Putin and has signaled there would be a change in France’s policies on Russia’s war in Ukraine if she is elected.
The American establishment clearly hopes for a Macron victory, although the Biden administration has publicly said it is watching the election closely and emphasized that the race is a decision of the French people.
“I’m just not going to preempt an election in a foreign country,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said earlier this month. “Obviously we will be watching it closely and I am sure we will have more to talk about once the results are finalized.”
Analysts say Marcon is likely to win another five-year term, but Le Pen’s third bid for the French presidency has surprised observers with its strength.
Le Pen ran against Macron in 2017, and her campaign strategy at the time aligned with and capitalized on former President Trump’s shock victory in 2016. Trump retained an official endorsement at the time, but expressed support for her positions.
His return to the second round in 2022 points to populist support for far-right positions among a part of the French population and discontent with Macron.
A victory for Le Pen would be widely seen as a victory for Russia and a defeat for the United States and NATO.
“Yes [Le Pen] won, it would be the first major victory that Vladimir Putin has secured since his forces were pinned down outside kyiv,” said Ben Judah, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
“It’s a very important election for the United States,” he added, saying a Le Pen victory would trade Macron’s tried and respected leadership on the European and world stage “for a leader who would be one of the least experienced, least respected and the least reliable.
A victory for Le Pen would also signal a rejection of a closer and more integrated European Union (EU), which has played a key role in taking steps to sanction Russia in unison with the US, UK and others. countries that joined the cause. like Japan and Australia.
“All the dynamics that we have seen in the last decades of consolidation of the EU, and becoming more of a kind of single actor, more of a big player on the international scene, everything will go in reverse, from an integration process to a process of of disintegration in Europe,” Judah said.
While recent polls have Macron ahead of Le Pen by as much as 10 percentage points ahead of Sunday’s second round of elections, his gains reflect what experts say is the politician’s strategy of trying to appeal to the mainstream. main, toning down some of her more extreme views and promoting herself as a single, working mother concerned about soaring inflation.
“Marine Le Pen tried to become more mainstream and target her message to blue-collar French voters, and she tries to appeal to voters who may feel abandoned by the left,” said Laure Pallez, a former French government adviser who is active among the French diaspora in the US
“Their strong performance in the elections shows that there is some public support for their positions. We cannot ignore it,” Pallez added.
The main issue for French voters is the so-called purchasing power, the increase in the cost of everyday goods, gas and energy. And while the French hold Russia largely responsible for launching a war in Ukraine, their own wallets have taken a hit from Western sanctions against Moscow.
Le Pen has tapped into those anxieties as part of her campaign while downplaying her historic position as a “largely pro-Russia, pro-Putin and anti-American candidate,” Célia Belin, a visiting fellow at the Center on America and Europe. in Brookings, she told her during a panel discussion.
“It has focused on purchasing power, socioeconomic issues,” Belin said, and that focus has allowed people to “forget their pro-Putin viewpoint.”
While Le Pen condemned Putin for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, she advocates a more independent France from Europe, the US and NATO, while making the US Putin a pariah.
“Le Pen no longer directly proposes leaving the EU or leaving the euro,” said Pallez, who still identified her as a “Eurosceptic.”
Le Pen wants to reduce France’s contributions to the EU, leave NATO’s top decision-making council, increase supervision of imports into the country and promote bilateral European ties, in particular with Hungary and Poland, two countries that are criticized for rolling back on democratic freedoms. .
“Its political identity is more ‘Europe of strong, individual nations,’” Pallez said, referring to Le Pen’s view that national laws have more power than consensus measures reached by the European Union council.
It is an idea that coincides with the policies advocated by Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orbán or Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, Pallez added.
While Le Pen has gained more popularity, her strong showing is also a reflection of domestic anger at Macron, who has been criticized for prioritizing the war in Ukraine over France’s concerns.
Macron announced his candidacy for president the day before the official campaign deadline and with a “letter to the French.” He created the public perception that Macron viewed a presidential victory as guaranteed and the election as “red tape,” Belin said.
“This kind of engagement with high politics has prevented him from really appearing as a national leader, concerned about the French and their problems, and at some point, it has started to breed resentment,” he added.
Pallez said Macron’s feeling of indifference further reinforced a feeling of disconnect between the general public and political elites.
“Just like in the United States, what people are most concerned about and what politicians are talking about don’t necessarily coincide,” he said. “That creates mistrust of the elite and very fertile ground for populist movements.”
Reference-thehill.com