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EL PERIÓDICO and Predi update the expectations of seats and the most probable government formula until the same election day
The regional election campaign in Castilla y León is coming to an end this Friday and EL PERIÓDICO continues to update the Predi prediction market to learn about the evolution of estimate of seats and the most likely form of government. The result of a research project at the University of Zurich, this electoral tool works like a stock market and is based on the transactions of a remarkable group of specialists in political, social and economic sciences.
In addition, during this final stretch of the campaign, Predi is the only mechanism that makes it possible to follow the last minute of electoral expectations beyond the polls and until the same election daygiven the legal prohibition of publishing opinion polls during the five days prior to the elections.
WHAT IS A PREDICTION MARKET?
In the last update, this Friday, February 11, the advantage of the PP about him PSOE it continues to narrow and, for the second day in a row, the Popular Party has lost a seat to the Socialists. What’s more, Union of the Leonese People (UPL) has won a deputy to the detriment of By Avila, which would remain without representation in the Cortes of Castilla y León. However, UPL and the PSOE are the ones closest to giving up a parliamentarian. Instead, Por Ávila and Spain Emptied They are the forces that are closest to winning a prosecutor in the regional Parliament.
48 hours before the polls open, the PP is 10 seats away from the absolute majority (fixed at 41 attorneys) and the candidate Alfonso Fernandez Manueco I would need Vox to revalidate the presidency of the Castilla and leon meeting. As for the left, the PSOE of Luis Tudanca, who won the 2019 elections, would go back significantly and would have no chance of forming an alternative government. However, the advantage of the PP over the PSOE in this series of predictions has fallen from 8 to 3 deputies during the election campaign.
The PP leads the predictions with 31 seats (now it has 29), one less than yesterday, so it is 10 deputies from the absolute majority. That bar could be exceeded with the 12 MPs that Predi predicts to Vox (today it has 1), the same as in the previous prediction.
If the extreme right-wingers would be the force that would grow the most in the Cortes of Castilla y León, the one that would suffer the greatest setback would be Ciudadanos, which one more day continues with 1 attorney (now he is 12). The PSOE would achieve 28 seats (today it has 35), one more than yesterday, and its partner in the central government, United We Can, would obtain 3 deputies (now has 2), the same as yesterday.
The hemicycle would be completed with UPL, which would achieve 3 MPs (now he has 1), one more than yesterday, and the irruption of the party Spain Emptiedwhich in its first electoral bid would be awarded 3 procurators, also the same record as yesterday. The big news this Friday would be the departure of the regional Parliament of By Avilawhich in 2019 was made with 1 representative and that he would lose it.
With this distribution of seats, Mañueco would have no margin to avoid Vox, since a hypothetical alliance with Spain Emptied, UPL Y citizens it would remain three deputies from the absolute majority. In any case, this equation would be very complex because, to begin with, the orange formation maintains that it will not re-invest the PP candidate after being expelled from the regional Executive.
With these predictions, the most likely post-election scenario is that Mañueco will continue to head the regional government, but there has been a shift once again between the options that he does so with Vox as parliamentary partner and the options that PP and Vox govern in coalition. The coalition government, which yesterday was close to a 50% probability, now remains in the 32.52% after 15 points in the last 24 hours. Those same 15 points are what increase the chances of a parliamentary alliance, which shoots up to 43.34%.
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The third possibility predicted by Predi, that the PP obtains absolute majorityup almost two points from yesterday (10.96%), while the least likely scenario is again that the socialist Tudanca is president. This option has lost two tenths in the last 24 hours and stands at 9.61%.