EL PERIÓDICO and Predi work up the expectations of seats and the most likely government formula, according to experts
The campaign for the regional elections in Castilla y León is already underway and EL PERIÓDICO is working the Predi forecast market to learn about the evolution of seating estimate and the most likely form of government. The result of a research project at the University of Zurich, this electoral instrument works like a stock market and is based on the transactions of a remarkable group of specialists in political, social and economic sciences.
This is the only mechanism that will allow the last minute of election expectations to go beyond the polls and until the same election day, given the legal ban on publishing opinion polls during the five days before the election.
WHAT IS A FORECAST MARKET?
In the last update, this Saturday, January 28th, the PP regained the seat he lost yesterday at the expense of the deduction of a deputy Spain emptied. But this new candidacy and Union of the Leonese People (UPL) are the brands that are closest to adding a Member of Parliament again. On the other hand, the popular is the power closest to losing a representative in the autonomous courts.
The PP maintains a comfortable advantage in winning the elections and the presidency of the Castilla and Leon meetin the hands of the popular Alfonso Fernandez Manueco, but it will not reach the absolute majority (set at 41 lawyers) and will need the help of other partners to stay in power. The far right of Vox This would be the one with the most numbers. As for the left, the PSOE of Luis Tudanca, who won the 2019 election, would go back significantly and have no chance of forming an alternative government.
The PP leads the forecasts with 35 seats (now he is 29), one more than yesterday, so he again needs six deputies from the absolute majority. That beam can be crossed with the 10 LPs which Predi predicts for Vox (today it has 1), the same as in the previous prediction.
If the far-right were the force that would grow the most in the Cortes of Castilla y León, the one that would get the biggest setback would be Ciudadanos, which continues one more day with 1 lawyer (now he is 12). Another day, the PSOE remains stuck in the 27 seats (today it is 35) and his central government partner, United We Can, would acquire 3 deputies (now has 2), same as yesterday.
The half bike would be completed with UPL, which would reach 2 LPs (now it has 1) and the disruption of the party Spain emptied, who would get in his first election bid 3 attorneys, one less than yesterday. From the regional Parliament would come By Avila, made in 2019 with 1 representative.
With this division of seats, if Mañueco Vox wanted to avoid, he could consider the support of Spain emptied, UPL Y Cs, although the comparison would be very complex because the orange formation to begin with insists that he will not re-invest the PP candidate after being expelled from the regional government.
With these predictions, the most likely post-election scenario is that Mañueco will still be heading the regional government. The options you do with Vox as parliamentary partner on (41.25%, one tenth more than yesterday) and is more than five points ahead of the options PP and Vox rule in coalition, which continues to decline (35.84%, two tenths less than yesterday). The third possibility that Predi predicts, but which goes back one point compared to 24 hours before, is that the PP acquires absolute majority (20.15%). Any other scenario that does not include the popular one barely exceeds 1% probability.