What we know and what we don’t know about the new South African variant

Genetic analysis of this variant shows around of 50 mutations, of which more than 30 are in the peak protein of the coronavirus. That is, most of the changes take place in the region that provides the ‘entry key’ that the virus uses to infect human cells. It is also the area that antibodies recognize to generate a immune response (and the target used by various vaccines to build immunity against this virus). This “unusual constellation of mutations”, as defined by experts, points to B.1.1.529 as the variant of the coronavirus that accumulates the most mutations, with up to a dozen more changes compared to the most mutant lineage detected to date. Many of these mutations had already been detected in other variants. Although it is the first time that so many have been detected in a single branch of the pathogen.

For now, experts say, it is still unclear whether this metamorphosis of the virus makes it more contagious, if it generates a more serious disease or if it puts vaccines in check. Several clinical, laboratory and epidemiological studies have already been activated to solve all these unknowns. As argued from the World Health Organization (WHO), it will take “several weeks” to understand the level of transmission and the virulence of this new variant.

The first cases of this variant were detected in Botswana earlier this month. Shortly after, a case was also confirmed in Hong Kong of a person who had recently traveled to Afica. As reported by researcher Tulio de Oliveira, from the South African Epidemic Response Center, in less than two weeks this variant has gone from zero to displace the dominant variant, Delta, already star in 75% of infections detected in South Africa. 90% of the cases tracked to date, which would be equivalent to about 1,000 daily, are located in the Gauteng province, in the north of the country. At the moment, there is no more data on the expansion of this lineage, although it cannot be ruled out that it has already jumped to other countries and regions.

The cluster of mutations in B.1.1.529 suggests that this variant could have been generated in a patient with persistent covid (or ‘long covid’). “The cumulative mutation signatures indicate that arose in a chronic infection“explains the professor of microbiology Ravi Gupta, of the University of Cambridge, in the portal ‘Science Media Center’.” It probably evolved during a chronic infection of a immunosuppressed personpossibly in an untreated patient with HIV or AIDS, “says Francois Balloux, director of the Institute of Genetics at Global University in London.

It is still too early to answer this question. Experts point out that, for now, the large number of mutations detected in this variant could cause the virus to get evade, at least partially, the immune response generated by vaccines. This, in practice, could significantly reduce the effectiveness of these drugs. Due to the elusiveness of these mutations, there are also voices that ask that, from now on, they continue close up cases of reinfections in vaccinated people in the African region.

Despite the high number of mutations, at the moment everything points to the fact that standard diagnostic tests are capable of detecting this emerging variant. Even so, according to several experts, changes in the spicule of the virus can make it difficult to detect cases. “Mutations of the S gene they can give false negatives“, says Sharon Peacock, director of the COG-UK Genomics Consortium, in statements to the portal ‘Science Media Center. According to the expert, if this hypothesis is confirmed, all this would translate into, beyond the cases detected to date, this The new variant could be more widespread than we think so far, at least in South Africa.