Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sent shock waves across the globe. It has implied unexpected geopolitical effects, among them, the revitalization of NATO and the leadership of the United States, a new impulse of unity in Europe, and the rearmament of Germany with a 180-degree change in its pacifist doctrine and embrace of the umbrella American military. France has regained a role as a diplomatic pivot and as an important defense force for the West in Europe. Taiwan has become aware of its parallels with Ukraine, and China will think twice before retaking the island by force; In addition, he will value the political ballast and stigma that his alliance with Putin represents.
It has also become clear that a resolute and courageous people, like the Ukrainian, with only light but modern high-tech military equipment (such as Javelin and SAAB NLAW personal portable anti-tank missiles, and the relentless Stinger portable anti-aircraft missiles) is capable to bog down the invasion of a military superpower, and to nearly neutralize its air force and mechanized forces.
On the other hand, the financial and commercial sanctions against Russia are penetrating deep into the global economy, despite the fact that the Russian economy is only the size of Spain’s, or just 1.5 times the size of the Mexican economy. Supply chains for metals and other raw materials have been dislocated, and international prices for hydrocarbons and wheat have soared. The latter, given that both Russia and Ukraine are among the most important exporters of the grain. The shadow of famine is cast over Africa. Also, Russia is a major exporter of Nickel, essential for lithium batteries in electric cars. Their prices have risen by 60%.
But energy is the sector that throws more extensive and far-reaching implications. The new German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has recognized Merkel’s mistake in having made Germany dependent on Russian hydrocarbons. Merkel calculated that trade and energy integration would bring the European Union and Russia closer together and converge. A new but failed Ostpolitik. Two direct gas pipelines from St. Petersburg to the German shores of the Baltic testify to this. Even the former Social Democratic chancellor Gerhard Schröder ended up as an adviser to the company selling the gas, the Russian state-controlled giant Gazprom. It should be noted that Merkel did not invest enough in regasification plants at her ports, which could have allowed Germany to source gas in the form of Liquefied Natural Gas transported in large cryogenic ships from the United States, Qatar, Kuwait, Indonesia or Latin America. Merkel made another mistake: the closure of the German nuclear plants due to pressure from the Greens. This had two consequences; One was to increase coal-fired power generation and stop the fight against global warming, and the other was to impose a suffocating political straitjacket on Germany, depriving it of autonomy and sovereignty. The new Chancellor Scholz is now reconsidering.
Hence, since the start of the war, Germany has sought to mitigate or limit the scope of Western trade and financial sanctions on Russia. Even today, he still opposes the ban on oil and gas imports from Russia to the West, which would actually close off the most relevant source of financing for the dictator Putin. America just did it. (70% of Russia’s oil and gas exports go to the West.)
But it should be noted that, in this crisis, renewable energies have contributed decisively to moderating increases in energy prices and giving greater political autonomy and energy flexibility to various European countries, in the context of the war unleashed by Putin against Ukraine. Solar energy costs have dropped by 85% since 2010, while the cost of wind power both onshore and offshore has fallen by 50% in the same period. And neither the wind nor the sun are imported, they are available locally. Additionally, renewable energy prices are stable and predictable, since they do not depend on volatile inputs. But to take full advantage of clean energy, it is necessary to guarantee its stability and reliability. To this end, integrated and intelligent electrical networks with wide geographical coverage must be developed, with new interconnection, transmission and distribution systems, as well as storage systems, fundamentally based on lithium batteries or green hydrogen produced by electrolysis of water with energy. solar, wind or nuclear. It is obvious that clean energy, in addition to being a key element in the fight against global warming, is a decisive factor in achieving energy sovereignty and security in countries.
In this crisis, renewable energies have contributed to giving greater political autonomy to various European countries.
@g_quadri
Civil Engineer and Economist
Serious Green
Mexican politician, liberal environmentalist and researcher, he has served as a public official and activist in the private sector. He was the candidate of the Nueva Alianza party for President of Mexico in the 2012 elections.