Several Western experts and representatives expect Vladimir Putin to use the symbol represented by May 9 to announce an important military victory or an escalation of hostilities in Ukraine.
There are good reason to believe that the Russians will do all they can to use
on May 9 for propagandistic purposes, spokesman for American diplomacy, Ned Price, launched on Monday.
” The Russians doubled down on their propaganda efforts probably, almost certainly, as a distraction from their tactical and strategic failures on the battlefield in Ukraine. »
Some even think that Putin could officially declare war on Ukraine, a conflict he has so far called special military operation
. He could at the same time trigger martial law, suspend elections and concentrate power even more in his hands. But this is the hardest scenario
explained to CNN Oleg Ignatov, analyst at the International Crisis Groupa NGO aimed at preventing and resolving deadly conflicts.
Another option for Putin would be to enact the National Mobilization Law, which allows him to trigger general or partial military mobilization. in case of aggression against the Russian Federation or direct threat of aggression
.
This would allow the government to muster troops and call in reservists or even civilians who have received military training.
It is difficult to know exactly how many Russian soldiers have lost their lives in Ukraine, but the Kremlin recently admitted “significant losses”. Reinforcements are therefore likely to be needed for Russia to achieve its goals in Ukraine, James Nixey, director of the Russia Program at Chatham House, a London-based think tank, told CNN.
But these two scenarios are risky for Putin, believes Oleg Ignatov. It would change the whole narrative of the Kremlin
he says, adding that he would then be forced to acknowledge that the invasion of Ukraine is not going as planned.
It could even undermine the population’s support for Putin, since many Russians approve of the offensive in Ukraine, but do not want to go to the front, believes Oleg Ignatov.
The Kremlin spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, has also denied these speculations.
” There is no chance of that happening. It makes no sense. »
To clean
Mariupol to celebrate May 9
Another speculation surrounding the May 9 celebrations is that Russia is planning a military parade in the besieged city of Mariupol, according to Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR).
The Deputy Director of the Russian Presidential Administration, Sergei Kirienki, is said to have even already arrived in Mariupol. The main mission of the person in charge of Mr. Putin is to prepare the ceremonies of May 9
reads a statement from the GUR on Telegram.
Mariupol will become a center of celebration, it is written. The main avenues of the city are cleaned in emergency, the debris and the bodies of the dead removed, as well as the ammunition which did not explode.
” They are suppressing all evidence of the crimes they have committed. They give food to the local population in exchange for their work. »
Asked about preparations for May 9, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu did not explicitly mention the possibility of such a parade in Mariupol.
This year, military parades will be held in 28 Russian cities
he said, adding that nearly 65,000 people, about 2,400 types of weapons and military equipment and more than 460 aircraft will be mobilized this year
.
Mariupol is almost entirely under the control of the Russian military. Only the immense Azovstal metallurgical complex, where the last Ukrainian fighters and civilians are entrenched, has not yet been completely taken by the forces of Moscow. According to Ukrainian authorities, the Russians launched an assault on the site on Tuesday, but the Kremlin denies this information.
Reference-ici.radio-canada.ca