The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of USA contracted in the first trimester at an annualized rate of 1.5%, slightly more than previously announced, according to the second estimate published on Thursday by the Department of Commerce.
The first estimate, published at the end of April, had shown a contraction of 1.4% for the January-March period, an unexpected stoppage in a context of high inflation aggravated by the ukrainian war and the persistent problems in the supply chains.
This downward revision is related to certain investments that were weaker than calculated at the time of the first estimate, and were only partially offset by consumer spending, which was higher than initially announced, details the Department of Commerce. .
The annualized rate, the measure preferred by USA, compares the GDP with the previous quarter and then projects the evolution throughout the year with this rate. Other countries prefer to simply compare the size of the economy with the previous quarter. According to this method, the contraction was 0.4% in the first quarter.
However, compared to the first quarter of 2021, US GDP grew by 3.5 percent.
“The risks to the economy and the probability of a recession are increasing,” said Lydia Boussour, an economist at oxford economicshowever describing an “economy (…) that is strong and has shown resilience in the face of omicron, persistent supply constraints and high inflation”.
A third and final estimate will be published on June 29.