UNITED NATIONS –
The United Nations estimated on Monday that the world’s population will reach 8 billion by November 15 and that India will replace China as the world’s most populous nation next year.
In a report released on World Population Day, the UN also said global population growth fell below 1% in 2020 for the first time since 1950.
According to the latest UN projections, the world population could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050, and peak to around 10.4 billion during the 2080s. It is projected to remain at that level until 2100.
The report says that more than half of the projected population increase through 2050 will be concentrated in just eight countries: Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania.
The report, “World Population Prospects 2022,” puts the world population at 7.942 billion now and forecasts it to reach 8 billion by mid-November.
John Wilmoth, director of the UN Population Division, told a news conference to release the report that the date the UN projection line crosses 8 billion is November 15.
But, he noted, “we don’t claim that to be the actual date … and we believe the uncertainty is at least a year or so.”
However, the UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, described 2022 as a “historic year”, with “the birth of the eight billion inhabitant of the Earth”.
“This is an occasion to celebrate our diversity, recognize our common humanity and marvel at the advances in health that have extended life expectancy and dramatically reduced maternal and infant mortality rates,” Guterres said in a statement. “At the same time, it is a reminder of our shared responsibility to care for our planet and a time to reflect on where we still fall short of our commitments to one another.”
The report projects that next year India, with a current population of 1.412 million, will overtake China, with a current population of 1.426 million, but Wilmoth said there is more uncertainty about that date than Earth reaching 8 billion on 15. of November.
Wilmoth said the UN moved up the 2027 date, especially as a result of China’s 2020 census. India had been planning its 2021 census, but said it was delayed due to the pandemic. The UN will reassess its projection after it takes place.
The UN projects that in 2050 the United States will remain the third most populous country in the world, behind India and China. Nigeria is projected to be number 4, followed by Pakistan, Indonesia, Brazil, Congo, Ethiopia and Bangladesh. Russia and Mexico, which are among the 10 most populous countries in 2022, are projected to lose their ninth and tenth places in 2050.
“The population of 61 countries or areas is projected to decline by 1% or more between 2022 and 2050,” the report says.
“In countries with at least half a million people, the largest relative reductions in population size over that period, with losses of 20% or more, are expected to take place in Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Serbia and Ukraine.”
In other highlights, the report said global life expectancy has improved nearly 9 years since 1990, to 72.8 years for babies born in 2019, and is projected to reach 77.2 years in 2050 as rates rise. mortality continues to decline. But in 2021, he said, life expectancy in the world’s poorest countries fell 7 years behind the global average.
Regarding gender balance, the report says: “Globally, the world has slightly more men (50.3%) than women (49.7%) in 2022.” “This number is projected to slowly reverse over the century,” he says. “By 2050, the number of women is expected to equal the number of men.”
The share of working-age people between 25 and 64 has been rising in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa, parts of Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean “thanks to recent declines in fertility,” the report says. .
The UN said this “demographic dividend” provides an opportunity to accelerate economic growth in these countries.
In another trend, the report said, “the population over 65 is growing faster than the population under that age.”
“As a result, the proportion of the global population aged 65 and over is projected to rise from 10% in 2022 to 16% in 2050,” he said.
Wilmoth said high life expectancies and very low levels of fertility and birth rates in European countries, Japan, North America, Australia and New Zealand are driving the trend toward a rapidly aging population and eventually a potential population decline.
As a result, for decades to come, international migration “will be the sole driver of population growth in high-income countries,” the report says.
“Instead, for the foreseeable future, population growth in low- and lower-middle-income countries will continue to be driven by an excess of births over deaths,” he said.