Ukraine war: Putin planned to divide Europe with an invasion, but now more nations seek the security of NATO membership

Finland’s border with Russia winds for more than 800 miles, from Nellim in the frozen north to the far south of the country, where it reaches the Gulf of Finland midway between Helsinki and St. Petersburg.

No country in the European Union has such a long border with Russia and, since the invasion of Ukraine, geographic exposure has turned into a sense of vulnerability.

Once, not long ago, only about 20% of Finns wanted to join. NATO. Now, the tables have turned and the vast majority of the population supports affiliation.

Although, officially, it is only being considered, the reality is that Finland it will certainly seek membership together with its neighbor Sweden.

The process is likely to start next week with an official announcement of support from the Finnish president.

Sweden will do the same a few days later, and NATO is already looking for ways to speed up the ratification process.

A well-placed source told me that the NATO summit, in Madrid at the end of June, was a good target to seek the necessary agreement between the existing members.

That may not be difficult to achieve. NATO is eager to expand its reach, with both Finland and Sweden bringing political and economic clout, as well as military might.

Finland, which still has compulsory military service, has about 900,000 people registered as military reservists, about one in six of the total population.

In western Finland, near the small town of Niinisalo, some of them take part in a big military exercise. There are thousands of Finnish troops involved, but also units from Britain, the United States, Estonia and Latvia, all of whom are members of NATO.

We are invited to observe and watch tanks and armored vehicles, speed through the dusty plains or drive through the forests. They are divided into teams, blue and yellow, and perform a mock battle against each other.

But at lunch, there is a pause. A Finnish vehicle, equipped with large mortars, pulls up nearby and as the turret opens, we shout hello to the soldier who emerges from inside. He calmly trusts that things can be resolved to keep Finland safe.

“Does that mean joining NATO?” I ask.

He takes a long pause, which is quite a common conversational trait in Finland, and then simply says, “Yes, I think so.”

Other soldiers tell us that they, too, support NATO membership; that it would be nice to have allies from all over the world.

The key to all of this, however, is not so much camaraderie as military insurance.

NATO’s fundamental principle is enshrined in its Article 5, which dictates that an attack on one member nation is considered an attack on all of them.

Watching the exercise is Finnish Defense Minister Antti Kaikkonen, a thoughtful politician who considers his words carefully.

“We are especially interested in Article 5 and those would be the main reasons for becoming a member of NATO,” he tells me.

Is that, I ask, because you are worried that Russia will attack your country?

“The Russian attack on Ukraine changed the security situation in Europe,” he says.

“And it changed the attitude of the Finnish people. Now, the majority of Finns are in favor of joining NATO. There is no immediate threat from Russia, but,” he pauses for a few long seconds, “we have to think about the future”.

And therein lies a curiosity of the Russian attack on Ukraine. It was supposed to divide Europe, divide a country from a continent, and spread fear.

Instead, it appears to have generated a sense of unity and purpose in Europe, if not the world. And Russia’s angry warnings against NATO becoming more expansive will, paradoxically, lead to NATO becoming bigger and stronger.

The unresolved and perhaps unsolvable question is whether this strengthens Europe.

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Russia has said that if Finland and Sweden join NATO (which, barring something extraordinary, they will), it will deploy troops and equipment, which could include nuclear missiles, to the Baltic region.

But will they? Can they? As always in this brutal conflict, it seems almost impossible to predict how the ripples will spread.